This month, we saw the Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) up an impressive 31%. But that can't change the reality that over the longer term (five years), the returns have been really quite dismal. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 59% after a long stretch. So we're hesitant to put much weight behind the short term increase. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.
The recent uptick of 14% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Autohome's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 10% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 16% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Autohome's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Autohome's TSR for the last 5 years was -54%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Autohome shareholders gained a total return of 16% during the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 9% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Autohome you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.