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Anhui Landun Photoelectron Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300862) 38% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

安徽兰顿光电股份有限公司(SZSE:300862)の株価が38%急上昇しているが、まったく納得できない

Simply Wall St ·  09/30 18:57

Anhui Landun Photoelectron Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300862) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 38% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 45% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Electronic industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.6x, you may consider Anhui Landun Photoelectron as a stock not worth researching with its 7.9x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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SZSE:300862 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 30th 2024

What Does Anhui Landun Photoelectron's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Anhui Landun Photoelectron's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Anhui Landun Photoelectron's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Anhui Landun Photoelectron's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 11% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 20% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Anhui Landun Photoelectron's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has lead to Anhui Landun Photoelectron's P/S soaring as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Anhui Landun Photoelectron currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Anhui Landun Photoelectron (at least 2 which are concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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