The Ourpalm Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300315) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. Looking further back, the 15% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in China's Entertainment industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 5.6x, you may consider Ourpalm as a stock not worth researching with its 15.1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
How Has Ourpalm Performed Recently?
Ourpalm could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this poor revenue performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Ourpalm.How Is Ourpalm's Revenue Growth Trending?
Ourpalm's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.1%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 41% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 6.9% as estimated by the sole analyst watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 28% growth forecast for the broader industry.
With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that Ourpalm's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Ourpalm's P/S?
The strong share price surge has lead to Ourpalm's P/S soaring as well. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've concluded that Ourpalm currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its forecast growth is lower than the wider industry. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ourpalm that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.