It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP); the share price is down a whopping 82% in the last three years. That would be a disturbing experience. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 26% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 35% in the last 90 days. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Advance Auto Parts isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Advance Auto Parts saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Advance Auto Parts' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
Advance Auto Parts shareholders are down 24% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 35%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Advance Auto Parts better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Advance Auto Parts (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
Advance Auto Parts is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.