The Huazhang Technology Holding Limited (HKG:1673) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 46%. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 7.4% isn't as attractive.
Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Huazhang Technology Holding's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Machinery industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
How Huazhang Technology Holding Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Huazhang Technology Holding over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Huazhang Technology Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Huazhang Technology Holding's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 9.8% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Huazhang Technology Holding's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Huazhang Technology Holding's P/S?
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Huazhang Technology Holding's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our look at Huazhang Technology Holding revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Huazhang Technology Holding (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Huazhang Technology Holding's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.