The Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd (SZSE:300078) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 36%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 31% in the last twelve months.
Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Hangzhou Century's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.8x is worth a mention when it essentially matches the median P/S in China's Electronic industry. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Hangzhou Century Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Hangzhou Century over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hangzhou Century, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Hangzhou Century's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 39% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 27% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Hangzhou Century's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Hangzhou Century's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We find it unexpected that Hangzhou Century trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Hangzhou Century (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Hangzhou Century, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.