Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the PhiChem Corporation (SZSE:300398) share price is up 19% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 13% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 8.3%, including dividends.
Since it's been a strong week for PhiChem shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
PhiChem's earnings per share are down 26% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
The strong decline in earnings per share suggests the market isn't using EPS to judge the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
We doubt the modest 0.5% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, PhiChem's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 14% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on PhiChem's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, PhiChem's TSR for the last 5 years was 21%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that PhiChem shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.3% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 4%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand PhiChem better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for PhiChem that you should be aware of.
Of course PhiChem may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.