ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002831) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 10% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 27% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

The recent uptick of 4.8% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 9.7% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology's TSR for the last 3 years was -21%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology shareholders are up 0.8% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 3% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.