The Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301281) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 151%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 34% in the last year.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 12.5x, considering almost half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have P/S ratios below 3.5x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
How Has Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 2.5%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with revenue growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 153% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical's P/S
Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical (2 don't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.