The Qijing Machinery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603677) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

After such a large jump in price, Qijing Machinery's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 34x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

For example, consider that Qijing Machinery's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as earnings growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Qijing Machinery would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 8.7% decline in EPS over the last three years in total. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 39% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Qijing Machinery is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Qijing Machinery's P/E

The large bounce in Qijing Machinery's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Qijing Machinery revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Qijing Machinery (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Qijing Machinery. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.