Outlook –
Our guidance remains unchanged from that set out at our Interim results on 31 July 2024.
– We continue to target a mid-teens return on average tangible equity ('RoTE') in 2024 and 2025, excluding the impact of notable items, while acknowledging the outlook for interest rates has changed, and been volatile, since our 1H24 results announcement in July.
– Our banking NII guidance of around $43bn for 2024 remains unchanged and we continue to target cost growth of approximately 5% for 2024 compared with 2023, on a target basis. ECL charges as a percentage of average gross loans in 2024 are expected to be within our medium-term planning range of 30bps to 40bps (including customer lending balances transferred to held for sale).
– Our guidance reflects our current outlook for the global macroeconomic environment, including customer and financial markets activity. This includes our modelling of a number of market-dependent factors, such as market-implied interest rates (as of mid-October 2024), as well as customer behaviour and activity levels.
– We intend to manage our CET1 capital ratio within our medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio target basis of 50% for 2024, which excludes material notable items and related impacts.
–We continue to make progress on reshaping the Group. We expect to complete the sale of our business in Argentina in 4Q24. On completion, cumulative foreign currency translation reserves and other reserves will recycle to the income statement. These impacts have already been recognised in capital. At 30 September 2024, foreign currency translation reserve and other reserve losses stood at $5.1bn