Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600138), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues of CN¥2.7b missed forecasts by 14%, but China Cyts Tours Holding managed to deliver a surprise (statutory) profit, with earnings per share of CN¥0.11 a decent improvement on the loss that the analysts were predicting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from China Cyts Tours Holding's ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥12.3b in 2025. This reflects a major 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 196% to CN¥0.58. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥12.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.61 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥10.84, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic China Cyts Tours Holding analyst has a price target of CN¥13.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥8.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that China Cyts Tours Holding's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 18% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 6.3% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So it looks like China Cyts Tours Holding is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥10.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Cyts Tours Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that China Cyts Tours Holding is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.