Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000596) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at CN¥5.3b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Anhui Gujing Distillery after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Anhui Gujing Distillery from 16 analysts is for revenues of CN¥27.8b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 24% to CN¥12.94. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥28.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥13.26 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CN¥225, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Anhui Gujing Distillery at CN¥252 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥193. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Anhui Gujing Distillery's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Anhui Gujing Distillery is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Anhui Gujing Distillery. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥225, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Anhui Gujing Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Anhui Gujing Distillery (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.