Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688008) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to CN¥64.55 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were CN¥906m, 24% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of CN¥0.34 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Montage Technology are now predicting revenues of CN¥5.99b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 80% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 81% to CN¥1.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥6.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.93 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥75.18, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Montage Technology analyst has a price target of CN¥83.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥60.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Montage Technology shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Montage Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 60% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Montage Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Montage Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Montage Technology you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.