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We Think Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

コマーシャルメタルズ(nyse:CMC)が負債の上にとどまることができると私たちは考えています

Simply Wall St ·  11/02 08:51

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

How Much Debt Does Commercial Metals Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Commercial Metals had US$1.05b in debt in August 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$857.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$190.4m.

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NYSE:CMC Debt to Equity History November 2nd 2024

How Strong Is Commercial Metals' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Commercial Metals had liabilities of US$834.9m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.68b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$857.9m in cash and US$1.16b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$500.9m.

Given Commercial Metals has a market capitalization of US$6.13b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Commercial Metals's net debt is only 0.21 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.5 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. It is just as well that Commercial Metals's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 41% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Commercial Metals can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Commercial Metals recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Based on what we've seen Commercial Metals is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Commercial Metals is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Commercial Metals that you should be aware of before investing here.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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