It's shaping up to be a tough period for Yonghui Superstores Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601933), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 15% short of analyst estimates at CN¥17b. Statutory losses were CN¥0.04 per share, 593% bigger than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Yonghui Superstores from 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥76.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 7.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Yonghui Superstores is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.056 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥76.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.055 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 8.9% to CN¥2.95despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Yonghui Superstores' earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Yonghui Superstores, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥5.40 and the most bearish at CN¥1.45 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yonghui Superstores' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Yonghui Superstores is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.5% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.4% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So although Yonghui Superstores' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Yonghui Superstores. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yonghui Superstores going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Yonghui Superstores is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
