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There's Reason For Concern Over Q2 Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:QTWO) Massive 27% Price Jump

Q2ホールディングス社(nyse: QTWO)の株価が27%急騰した理由について懸念があります

Simply Wall St ·  11/08 07:20

Q2 Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:QTWO) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 206% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Following the firm bounce in price, Q2 Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 9.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to other companies in the Software industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios below 5x and even P/S below 1.8x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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NYSE:QTWO Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry November 8th 2024

What Does Q2 Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Q2 Holdings has been relatively sluggish. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this lacklustre revenue performance will improve markedly. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Q2 Holdings.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Q2 Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 11%. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see revenue up by 42% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 11% as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 25%, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Q2 Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Q2 Holdings' P/S?

The strong share price surge has lead to Q2 Holdings' P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

It comes as a surprise to see Q2 Holdings trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. The weakness in the company's revenue estimate doesn't bode well for the elevated P/S, which could take a fall if the revenue sentiment doesn't improve. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Q2 Holdings.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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