When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times have been advantageous for Casey's General Stores as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Casey's General Stores?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Casey's General Stores would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 11% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 65% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.7% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that Casey's General Stores is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Casey's General Stores' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Having said that, be aware Casey's General Stores is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Casey's General Stores. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
