It's shaping up to be a tough period for Samsonite International S.A. (HKG:1910), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Samsonite International missed earnings this time around, with US$878m revenue coming in 4.6% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.045 also fell short of expectations by 19%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Samsonite International's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$3.92b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$0.28, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.29 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$26.91, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Samsonite International analyst has a price target of HK$37.08 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$19.40. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Samsonite International'shistorical trends, as the 7.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.6% per year. So although Samsonite International is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Samsonite International. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Samsonite International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Samsonite International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
