Despite an already strong run, Nanxing Machinery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002757) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 30% in the last thirty days. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Nanxing Machinery's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.6x is worth a mention when the median P/E in China is similar at about 36x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Nanxing Machinery over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
How Is Nanxing Machinery's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Nanxing Machinery's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 56%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 53% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 40% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Nanxing Machinery is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Nanxing Machinery's P/E
Nanxing Machinery's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Nanxing Machinery currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Nanxing Machinery (including 2 which are concerning).
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Nanxing Machinery, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
