Maoyan Entertainment (HKG:1896) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 11% over that time.
Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Maoyan Entertainment's P/E ratio of 11.4x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 10x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Maoyan Entertainment certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
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The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Maoyan Entertainment's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 119% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 354% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 8.1% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 12% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Maoyan Entertainment's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Final Word
Maoyan Entertainment appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Maoyan Entertainment currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Maoyan Entertainment with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.