As an investor, mistakes are inevitable. But really bad investments should be rare. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ), who have seen the share price tank a massive 73% over a three year period. That would be a disturbing experience. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 46% lower in that time. Furthermore, it's down 23% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
After losing 11% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Canadian Solar saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 12% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 35% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 32% in the last year, Canadian Solar shareholders lost 46%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Canadian Solar better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Canadian Solar (at least 2 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.