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Is Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) A Risky Investment?

キネティック・デベロップメント・グループ(HKG:1277)はリスクのある投資ですか。

Simply Wall St ·  11/27 08:05

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

What Is Kinetic Development Group's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kinetic Development Group had debt of CN¥982.3m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥1.47b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥614.5m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥367.8m.

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SEHK:1277 Debt to Equity History November 27th 2024

A Look At Kinetic Development Group's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kinetic Development Group had liabilities of CN¥3.03b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥895.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥614.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥89.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥3.22b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Kinetic Development Group has a market capitalization of CN¥10.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Kinetic Development Group has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.11. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 163 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Kinetic Development Group has boosted its EBIT by 35%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kinetic Development Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinetic Development Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Happily, Kinetic Development Group's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its EBIT growth rate also supports that impression! Looking at the bigger picture, we think Kinetic Development Group's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kinetic Development Group .

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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