According to information obtained by the Zhitong Finance APP, in October 2024, a total of 8247 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold in the domestic market, with a month-on-month increase of 5% compared to September, and a year-on-year increase of 141%. In October, sales of pure electric heavy-duty trucks (including battery-swappable and charging heavy-duty trucks) reached 7657 units, accounting for 92.85%, a decrease from the previous month (96.02%).

Among them, sales of battery-swappable heavy-duty trucks reached 2687 units, an increase of 3% compared to the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 99%, with a narrowing of the year-on-year growth rate compared to the previous month (+144%), achieving a '10 consecutive increases'.

Since 2024, the monthly penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks has rapidly increased from single digits to double digits, breaking through the 10% turning point and ushering in a trend of volume growth.

China International Capital Corporation believes that the growth of the new energy heavy-duty truck industry is sustainable, and new opportunities and challenges are emerging in terms of competition, industrial ecology, and profit models. The data from mandatory insurance shows that the number of new energy heavy-duty trucks registered in October 2024 increased by 143% year-on-year to 57,000 units, and the penetration rate reached 11.9%.

China International Capital Corporation predicts that driven by economic advantages and policy support, the penetration rate of domestic new energy heavy-duty trucks in 2024 is expected to exceed the critical point of 10%, poised to enter the steep phase of S-shaped growth curve for accelerated development. Looking ahead, taking into account specific vehicle types and typical cities, we estimate that the mid-term penetration rate ceiling for new energy heavy-duty trucks could reach 26.5%.

According to information obtained by the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation expects new energy heavy-duty trucks to be the first to be used in short to medium-distance transportation, short-distance transportation, as well as in closed park scenarios such as ports and mining areas. It is expected to penetrate first in regions with strong industrial demand and policy support, validate the business model, educate users, and then promote extensively.

Economies of scale may lead to a profit inflection point, and creating growth points through ecology and going global. China International Capital Corporation believes that income is affected by factors such as volume and price, while production costs are influenced by raw material costs, the proportion of core components manufactured in-house, and capacity utilization rate.

現在、新興エネルギー商用車の粗利率は一般的に低い状態であり、業界の利益の転換点はコストから価格に変化しており、今後、業界は継続的な需要の増加と価格の安定により、粗利率が着実に増加する可能性があります。

中国国際資本公司は、電動化およびスマート化の変革を積極的に支持し、産業全体の価値がますます多様化していると考えており、自動車メーカーは新興エネルギー商用車のエコシステムを構築し、ソフトウェアおよびハードウェアの価値を創出する可能性があります。また、グローバルな低炭素転換の中で、中国の新興エネルギー商用車は、完全なサプライチェーンの利点と豊富な製品・技術の蓄積により、海外市場での増加拡大を実現することを期待しています。

重卡関連企業：

weichai power(02338)、中国重汽(03808)