The investors in Hesai Group's (NASDAQ:HSAI) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 63% to US$7.35 in the week following its third-quarter results. Revenues were CN¥539m, and Hesai Group came in a solid 10% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hesai Group after the latest results.

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Hesai Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥3.33b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 74% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Hesai Group forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.87 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥3.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.23 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$7.06, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hesai Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.85 and the most bearish at US$5.23 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Hesai Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hesai Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 56% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 36% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hesai Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Hesai Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.06, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hesai Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Hesai Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.