综合而言，在缺乏新利好推动背景下，黄金向上反弹力度减弱，一旦向下跌破近期低点，回调幅度或加大。11月28日、COMEX gold price fell 0.12% to $2661.50 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures rose 0.04% to 613.92 yuan per gram.
Regarding geopolitics, the Israeli military stated that multiple suspects were found in various areas in southern Lebanon, some of whom were carrying vehicles, constituting illegal behavior.
On the interest rate reduction side, the latest data from CME's 'Fedwatch' shows that the probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 33.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 66.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate in January next year is 25.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 58.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 15.6%.
Overall, in the absence of new bullish factors, the upward rebound of gold weakens. Once it falls below the recent lows, the magnitude of the pullback may increase.
データソース：Wind、金十データ、光大先物研究所
執筆：吴爱华
従業資格：F3074355
投資助言資格：Z0017696
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