American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.3% to US$89.19 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$452m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.79, missing estimates by 8.2%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on American Woodmark after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, American Woodmark's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.77b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 16% to US$5.90 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.53 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$114, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$118 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that American Woodmark's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for American Woodmark. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$114, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Woodmark going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It might also be worth considering whether American Woodmark's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
