ZHITONG Finance has learned that the manufacturing activity index published on Monday shows that the contraction in manufacturing activity is the largest in nine months due to a decrease in domestic and foreign customer orders and the continuing supply chain interruptions, pushing up costs. The UK's November SPGI Manufacturing PMI final value dropped from 49.9 in October to 48.0, below the previous estimate of 48.6 and below the breakeven point of 50.

Standard & Poor's pointed out that the new Labor government's budget on October 30 included a £25 billion (US$32 billion) employment tax increase, a 7% increase in the UK's minimum wage, interruptions in red sea shipping, and threats of global commodity tariffs, all of which are unfavorable factors.

Standard & Poor's director Rob Dobson said, "Manufacturers are facing a high-cost, low-demand environment with increasing uncertainty in the foreseeable future. Despite the economic downturn affecting companies of all sizes, small businesses are taking the hardest hit, with significant declines in their output, new orders, and new export business.

Last week, US President-elect Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico and a 10% to 20% tariff on almost all imported goods.

The United States is a major buyer of British exports such as Land Rover, machinery, chemicals, and a range of popular drugs - this special relationship makes British companies particularly vulnerable to the impact of President-elect Trump's planned tariff hikes.

Although it is still unclear how Trump's economic policies will affect the UK, data from McKinsey Global Institute and the UN's International Trade Center show that in 15 industries of UK's commodity exports, 9 industries have the US as their main destination. In contrast, among the 15 industries of Germany's commodity exports, only 4 have the US as their main destination, and in France's 15 industries of commodity exports, only 1 has the US as their main destination.

Tera Allas, Director of Research and Economics for McKinsey UK and Ireland, said, "In terms of commodities alone, the US dominates in many areas of British exports, surpassing the export share of major EU countries."

尽管イギリスが持つ巨大なサービス業は、トランプの関税計画にある程度の猶予を与えるかもしれませんが、イギリスの輸出は無視できないレベルではありません。今年初めの公式データによると、従業員250人以上の大手製造業者は工場部門に68億ポンド（約860億ドル）の収入をもたらしました。

マッキンゼーのデータによると、2022年には、英国の89億ドルの輸送用機器販売額（英国第2位の輸出製品）の約5分の1が米国から供給されています。その中で、最も有名な企業の一つであるロールス・ロイス・ホールディングスは、2023年のグローバル販売の約3分の1が北米から出ています。このFTSE100指数の構成銘柄の会社は、インディアナ州、ミシガン州、サウスカロライナ州など、米国でも多くのビジネスを展開しています。

スタンダード・アンド・プアーズによると、一部の企業は予算とグローバルな不確実性の増加により、コストが上昇し、顧客が投資プロジェクトを延期またはキャンセルしています。注文、生産、雇用は9か月ぶりに最も急速なペースで低下しています。公式データによると、イギリスの製造業の9月の生産は前年同期比0.7％減少しました。