Sleep Number Corporation (NASDAQ:SNBR) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 29% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 26% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Sleep Number's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

What Does Sleep Number's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Sleep Number could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Sleep Number's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 23% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 0.9% each year during the coming three years according to the five analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 5.4% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that Sleep Number is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Sleep Number's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Given that Sleep Number's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Sleep Number has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Sleep Number's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.