Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Pennant Group is US$50.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Pennant Group's US$29.83 share price signals that it might be 41% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 33% higher than Pennant Group's analyst price target of US$38.25
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of The Pennant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PNTG) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$40.6m | US$47.8m | US$53.2m | US$57.8m | US$61.8m | US$65.2m | US$68.3m | US$71.1m | US$73.7m | US$76.1m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 11.28% | Est @ 8.68% | Est @ 6.86% | Est @ 5.59% | Est @ 4.70% | Est @ 4.08% | Est @ 3.64% | Est @ 3.33% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0% | US$38.3 | US$42.6 | US$44.7 | US$45.9 | US$46.2 | US$46.1 | US$45.5 | US$44.7 | US$43.7 | US$42.7 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$440m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$76m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.6%) = US$2.3b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= US$1.3b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$29.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pennant Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.812. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Pennant Group
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Balance sheet summary for PNTG.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- What else are analysts forecasting for PNTG?
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Pennant Group, there are three essential factors you should assess:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Pennant Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does PNTG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
