share_log

Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?

オートリブ (nyse:ALV) はリスクのある投資ですか。

Simply Wall St ·  12/09 20:34

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Autoliv, Inc. (NYSE:ALV) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

How Much Debt Does Autoliv Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Autoliv had debt of US$2.21b, up from US$1.87b in one year. However, it also had US$415.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.80b.

big
NYSE:ALV Debt to Equity History December 9th 2024

How Strong Is Autoliv's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Autoliv had liabilities of US$4.03b due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.97b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$415.0m and US$2.19b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$3.40b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Autoliv is worth US$7.66b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Autoliv has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.4 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also positive, Autoliv grew its EBIT by 23% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Autoliv can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Autoliv recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

The good news is that Autoliv's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Autoliv can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Autoliv .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

これらの内容は、情報提供及び投資家教育のためのものであり、いかなる個別株や投資方法を推奨するものではありません。 更に詳しい情報
    コメントする