Key Insights
- The projected fair value for TCL Electronics Holdings is HK$5.51 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of HK$5.63 suggests TCL Electronics Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for 1070 is HK$7.44, which is 35% above our fair value estimate
Does the December share price for TCL Electronics Holdings Limited (HKG:1070) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) | HK$970.0m | HK$1.03b | HK$1.08b | HK$1.12b | HK$1.16b | HK$1.20b | HK$1.23b | HK$1.27b | HK$1.30b | HK$1.33b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 7.36% | Est @ 5.85% | Est @ 4.80% | Est @ 4.06% | Est @ 3.55% | Est @ 3.18% | Est @ 2.93% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.63% | Est @ 2.54% |
| Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 10.0% | HK$882 | HK$849 | HK$809 | HK$765 | HK$721 | HK$676 | HK$633 | HK$591 | HK$552 | HK$514 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$7.0b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$1.3b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (10.0%– 2.3%) = HK$18b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$18b÷ ( 1 + 10.0%)10= HK$6.9b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$14b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$5.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at TCL Electronics Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.575. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for TCL Electronics Holdings
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for 1070.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Consumer Durables market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- What else are analysts forecasting for 1070?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For TCL Electronics Holdings, there are three essential factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does 1070 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 1070's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.