Despite an already strong run, Nanjing Red Sun Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000525) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 49% in the last year.
After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Chemicals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.6x, you may consider Nanjing Red SunLtd as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.4x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
How Has Nanjing Red SunLtd Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Nanjing Red SunLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Nanjing Red SunLtd will help you shine a light on its historical performance.How Is Nanjing Red SunLtd's Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Nanjing Red SunLtd's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 12% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 20% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's alarming that Nanjing Red SunLtd's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Nanjing Red SunLtd's P/S?
Nanjing Red SunLtd shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Nanjing Red SunLtd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Nanjing Red SunLtd (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.