Despite an already strong run, Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co., Ltd (SZSE:002762) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 16.4x, considering almost half the companies in China's Luxury industry have P/S ratios below 1.8x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
How Has Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 39% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What Does Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles' P/S Mean For Investors?
Shares in Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles that you need to take into consideration.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.