If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after glancing at the trends within ManpowerGroup (NYSE:MAN), we weren't too hopeful.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for ManpowerGroup, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.096 = US$381m ÷ (US$8.5b - US$4.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

Thus, ManpowerGroup has an ROCE of 9.6%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Professional Services industry average of 15%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for ManpowerGroup compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for ManpowerGroup .

So How Is ManpowerGroup's ROCE Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about ManpowerGroup, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 16%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect ManpowerGroup to turn into a multi-bagger.

On a separate but related note, it's important to know that ManpowerGroup has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 53%, which we'd consider pretty high. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.

Our Take On ManpowerGroup's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 25% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for ManpowerGroup (of which 1 can't be ignored!) that you should know about.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.