To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. On that note, looking into National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on National Vision Holdings is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.021 = US$33m ÷ (US$2.0b - US$426m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, National Vision Holdings has an ROCE of 2.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 13%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for National Vision Holdings compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for National Vision Holdings .

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There is reason to be cautious about National Vision Holdings, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 4.0% that they were earning five years ago. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on National Vision Holdings becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line On National Vision Holdings' ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 66% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

While National Vision Holdings doesn't shine too bright in this respect, it's still worth seeing if the company is trading at attractive prices. You can find that out with our FREE intrinsic value estimation for EYE on our platform.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.