When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may consider Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 39x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Marten Transport hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Marten Transport's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 60% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 57% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 15% growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Marten Transport's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Marten Transport's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Marten Transport you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.