Despite an already strong run, Novoray Corporation (SHSE:688300) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 31% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 36%.

Since its price has surged higher, Novoray may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.4x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 36x and even P/E's lower than 20x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been pleasing for Novoray as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Is There Enough Growth For Novoray?

Novoray's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 31% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 38% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 30% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 38% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it concerning that Novoray is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Novoray have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Novoray's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Novoray with six simple checks.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Novoray. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.