While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the AsiaInfo Technologies Limited (HKG:1675) share price has gained 14% in the last three months. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 52% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$412m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
AsiaInfo Technologies saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 30% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 22% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into AsiaInfo Technologies' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of AsiaInfo Technologies's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, AsiaInfo Technologies' TSR for the last 3 years was -42%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 28% in the last year, AsiaInfo Technologies shareholders lost 24% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand AsiaInfo Technologies better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for AsiaInfo Technologies (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
We will like AsiaInfo Technologies better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.