It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. To wit, the Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) share price has flown 115% in the last three years. How nice for those who held the stock! It's also good to see the share price up 14% over the last quarter. This could be related to the recent financial results, released recently - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 9.3%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During three years of share price growth, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 7.5% per year. In comparison, the 29% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 52% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Before spending more time on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
But note: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
