Amid worries about an economic recession and eager expectations for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut as anticipated. This marks the first rate cut since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 and signals the end of the tightening cycle that began in March 2022 and paused in July 2023. However, the magnitude of the rate cut surprised the market, as an initial reduction of 50 basis points is histori...
Strong day for small caps. Here are the levels to watch if you are looking for an entry long on pullback if one comes. Larger Image: tradingview.com... $IWM
As the Fed turn back to higher for longer, zombie firms in$Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$will suffer. They are much more sensitive to interest rate than the big firms in$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$, that’s why they fall whe the big names indexes are still in greens. Stocks in the$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$are chasing the rise of$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$. They are no gainer this month, however market apetite is still high. I choose sell call to benefit from this follower suffer marke...
Last week,$ラッセル2000指数(2412) (RTYmain.US)$gained 6% (top right as highlighted in yellow) and was the best performer among the 4 major US indices, followed by$NASDAQ-100(2412) (NQmain.US)$,$S&P500(2412) (ESmain.US)$and$NYダウ(2412) (YMmain.US)$. Both$Micro ラッセル2000指数(2412) (M2Kmain.US)$and$NYダウ (.DJI.US)$just broke out from the re-accumulation structure while$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and Nasdaq travels within a well define up channel and currently hit the channel's overbought line. Would we see a rotation from the S&P 500 and$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$to the Russell and the Dow Jones? Let's focus on the daily chart of the Russell 2000 index futures (RTY) as shown below: An apex formation has formed since July 2021 and there is something unusual about this triangle pattern. Normally, while the price is consolidating within the triangle (forming lower high and higher low), we will notice decreasing of the volume together with the contraction of the volatility (e.g. the price spread of the candles are getting smaller from left to right hand side of the triangle). In this case, despite the volatility is getting lower, the volume is expanding on every down wave, suggesting lots of selling. Yet, what's the results? A higher low throughout from Aug till Nov 2021. This suggests that there was supply absorption going on while the selling happened. This is very constructive for a bullish scenario because the "strong hands" step in to support the price on every reaction and to scoop up the bargain. At the end of Oct 2021, there is an attempt to breakout of both the triangle and the horizontal resistance at 2310 followed by a shallow pullback and reversal, which marks the last point of support (LPS) of the accumulation structure before the sign of strength rally breaks above the structure. The supply level is especially low from the previous reaction suggests that the absorption is completed and ready to markup. As heavy supply has been absorbed within the triangle pattern, we might not expect a backup action coming back to test the axis line where the resistance-turned-support around 2310–2370, instead the backup action could happen at higher ground. The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks. A Quick Guide to Get Exposure to Small-Caps The easiest way to participate the small caps without worrying about stock picking is via the ETFs. Feel free check out$iシェアーズ ラッセル 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$,$iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$,$Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$,$SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY.US)$,$Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Value Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap Value Index--Symbol--Cvk (SLYV.US)$,$Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Growth Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap 600 Growth Index --Symbol Cgk) (SLYG.US)$. If you want to take it to the next level to beat the ETF, just explore the individual stocks within the those ETFs and pick those that outperform the market, sector and group with accumulation structure and wait for the right trade setup that suits you. For example,$マーラ・ホールディングス (MARA.US)$just about to complete the Wyckoff accumulation structure and is a potential candidate to ride on the strong trend of$Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.US)$.
Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etfに関するコメント
👉What should you do when market takes a dive?
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $NYダウ (.DJI.US)$ $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$
Larger Image: tradingview.com...
$IWM
They are no gainer this month, however market apetite is still high. I choose sell call to benefit from this follower suffer marke...
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $米ドル指数 (USDindex.FX)$ $インベスコQQQ 信託シリーズ1 (QQQ.US)$ $バンガード・S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$ $一般消費財セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド (XLY.US)$ $SPDR ダウ工業株平均 ETF (DIA.US)$ $米国債30年 (US30Y.BD)$ $シフトピクシー (PIXY.US)$ $ユーロ/米ドル (EURUSD.FX)$ $US TREASURY 2 YEAR NOTE ETF (UTWO.US)$ $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$ $エネルギー・セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド (XLE.US)$ $フェデックス (FDX.US)$ $AMCエンターテインメント クラスA (AMC.US)$
Source: Bloomberg
Key Points
- Why there is heavy accumulation in Russell 2000 ( $iシェアーズ ラッセル 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ ) via the apex formation.
- How to anticipate if a potential rotation will happen from $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ , $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ into $NYダウ (.DJI.US)$ and $Micro ラッセル2000指数(2412) (M2Kmain.US)$
- Why the indices could be in a vulnerable condition and what to expect.
- Using Wyckoff's law — efforts vs results to interpret the supply absorption and judge the timing of the up swing.
- Sector ETF to focus: $資本財セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド (XLI.US)$ $Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW.US)$ $iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB.US)$ and watch out for the extensive run in $ヴァンエック・半導体株ETF (SMH.US)$
- For small cap, feel free to explore $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ $iシェアーズ ラッセル 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$
Watch the video below
Both $Micro ラッセル2000指数(2412) (M2Kmain.US)$ and $NYダウ (.DJI.US)$ just broke out from the re-accumulation structure while $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ and Nasdaq travels within a well define up channel and currently hit the channel's overbought line. Would we see a rotation from the S&P 500 and $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ to the Russell and the Dow Jones?
Let's focus on the daily chart of the Russell 2000 index futures (RTY) as shown below:
An apex formation has formed since July 2021 and there is something unusual about this triangle pattern. Normally, while the price is consolidating within the triangle (forming lower high and higher low), we will notice decreasing of the volume together with the contraction of the volatility (e.g. the price spread of the candles are getting smaller from left to right hand side of the triangle).
In this case, despite the volatility is getting lower, the volume is expanding on every down wave, suggesting lots of selling. Yet, what's the results? A higher low throughout from Aug till Nov 2021. This suggests that there was supply absorption going on while the selling happened.
This is very constructive for a bullish scenario because the "strong hands" step in to support the price on every reaction and to scoop up the bargain.
At the end of Oct 2021, there is an attempt to breakout of both the triangle and the horizontal resistance at 2310 followed by a shallow pullback and reversal, which marks the last point of support (LPS) of the accumulation structure before the sign of strength rally breaks above the structure. The supply level is especially low from the previous reaction suggests that the absorption is completed and ready to markup.
As heavy supply has been absorbed within the triangle pattern, we might not expect a backup action coming back to test the axis line where the resistance-turned-support around 2310–2370, instead the backup action could happen at higher ground.
The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks.
A Quick Guide to Get Exposure to Small-Caps
The easiest way to participate the small caps without worrying about stock picking is via the ETFs. Feel free check out $iシェアーズ ラッセル 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ , $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ , $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$ , $SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Value Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap Value Index--Symbol--Cvk (SLYV.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Growth Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap 600 Growth Index --Symbol Cgk) (SLYG.US)$ .
If you want to take it to the next level to beat the ETF, just explore the individual stocks within the those ETFs and pick those that outperform the market, sector and group with accumulation structure and wait for the right trade setup that suits you. For example, $マーラ・ホールディングス (MARA.US)$ just about to complete the Wyckoff accumulation structure and is a potential candidate to ride on the strong trend of $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.US)$ .
$インベスコQQQ 信託シリーズ1 (QQQ.US)$
$Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$
$ウェルズ・ファーゴ (WFC.US)$
$アップル (AAPL.US)$
$アリババ・グループ (BABA.US)$
$SPDR ゴールド・シェア (GLD.US)$
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