In examining Maybank's historical performance through moomoo's charts, the term 'steady' succinctly captures its trajectory. Over the past 13 years, since 2011, Maybank has posted gains in 10 years, with an overall rise of roughly 123%, and an average annual growth of about 6.4%. There haven't been any years of extraordinary gains or significant losses, highlighting its consistent performance.

Investors may wonder if Maybank can maintain this stability in the future. Steady share prices often reflect solid business operations. To assess Maybank's outlook, it's crucial to scrutinize Maybank's financial reports, focusing on earnings consistency, financial health, and dividend reliability.

1. Consistent earnings

Maybank's operational stability is evident in its consistent performance metrics.

In terms of net operating income, Maybank has shown a stable and upward trend over the past five years, growing from 24.74 billion Malaysian ringgit in 2019 to 27.36 billion in 2023.

Maybank's revenue streams are fairly steady, split between net interest income and non-interest income.

Profit analysis from 2019 to 2022 shows that, aside from a pandemic-induced dip in 2020, Maybank's net profit hovered consistently around 8.1 to 8.2 billion Malaysian ringgit. However, in 2023, the bank's net profit reached 9.35 billion Malaysian ringgit, a 17.5% year-over-year growth.

In terms of profitability, Maybank's Return on Equity (ROE) experienced a minor fluctuation but remained stable at around 10%.

Looking ahead, we should keep an eye on whether Maybank can maintain this consistent performance. While slight ups and downs are normal, a trend of significant declines would be a red flag.

2. Financial health

For a bank-centric company like Maybank, financial risk assessment primarily hinges on three indicators.

The first is the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital Ratio, a crucial measure of stability that compares a bank's core capital (common equity plus retained earnings) to its risk-weighted assets. Set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the minimum CET1 ratio requirement is about 4.5%.

Maybank's CET1 ratio has mostly been in the 15%-16% range over the past five years, well above the Basel III minimum standards, indicating a generally upward trend.

The second metric is the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which indicates the proportion of bad loans within the total loan portfolio and serves as an indicator of loan asset quality. Generally, loans overdue for more than 90 days might be classified as non-performing. A higher ratio suggests more potential bad debt and greater possible losses for the bank.

Maybank's NPL ratio has lowered significantly from 1.3% to around 0.5% between 2019 and 2023, remaining at a relatively low level.

The third metric is the loan loss provision coverage ratio, which is the proportion of funds a bank has set aside in anticipation of non-performing loans compared to the actual amount of non-performing loans. This ratio reflects the bank's preparedness for potential losses; a higher ratio indicates the bank is more prudent and cautious about potential loan default risks, suggesting more robust management.

From 2019 to 2023, as Maybank's non-performing loan ratio decreased, its loan loss provision coverage ratio（PCR） improved, rising from under 100% to 124.9%. This indicates that Maybank currently maintains a relatively high level of reserves to cover potential loan losses.

Overall, considering the CET1 Capital Ratio, the NPL ratio, and the loan loss provision coverage, Maybank's financial risk appears manageable. Moving forward, monitoring trends in these indicators will be key to assessing Maybank's financial risk.

3. Stable dividend yield

Stable and well-managed banks often offer generous dividends, making them attractive to investors who prioritize income alongside potential capital gains. Dividends signal a company's commitment to its shareholders and are typically well-received by the investment community.

The dividend yield is the ratio of the dividend amount to the total market value of the stock. A higher dividend yield suggests a higher potential return on investment if the stock price remains constant. However, investors must also weigh factors, including stock price volatility, when considering high-dividend stocks.

Historically, Maybank has been generous with dividends. Between 2019 and 2023, it paid out a total of roughly 33.95 billion in dividends against 40.37 billion in net profits, translating to a payout ratio of about 84.1%.

Maybank's dividend yield held steady between 6% and 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, outperforming bank deposit rates, per the financial reports. As of mid-May in 2024, its yield arrived at around 6%, according to data on moomoo.

In terms of stock price growth, Maybank saw a 32.1% increase during that period, with an annualized growth roughly equal to the dividend yield, providing shareholders with returns that mirrored the dividends.

While it's impossible to predict Maybank's future stock performance, the stability of its dividend yield is certainly something to keep an eye on.

In short, Maybank's consistent stock performance is a testament to its solid business operations. We can consider the company's future stability from three angles: operational performance, financial health, and dividend policy.

Operationally, Maybank has had stable revenue and profits. We'll be looking to see if it can maintain this solid performance.

Financially, the company has kept a steady CET1 capital ratio while managing non-performing loans and provisions effectively. We'll continue to watch these indicators for signs of sustained risk management.

Looking at dividend distributions, Maybank has been relatively generous with its payouts in recent years, maintaining a consistently high dividend yield. Going forward, it will be important to monitor whether the company can sustain its proactive dividend policy.