By Howard Schneider
霍華德·施耐德
Nashville, Tennessee, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Economy Seems Poised for a Continued Slowdown in Inflation That Will Allow the Federal Reserve to Cut Its Benchmark Interest Rate and "Over Time" Reach a Level That Is No Longer Holding Back Activity, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Said on Monday in Remarks That Showed No Obvious Lean Towards a Faster or Slower Pace of Rate Reductions.
田納西州納什維爾,9月30日(路透社) - 美國經濟似乎做好繼續通脹放緩的準備,這將使聯邦儲備能夠降低其基準利率,並「隨着時間的推移」達到不再限制活動的水平,聯邦儲備主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾週一表示,他的講話未明顯傾向於更快或更慢的減息速度。
"Disinflation Has Been Broad-Based, and Recent Data Indicate Further Progress Toward a Sustained Return to 2%," the Fed's Targeted Inflation Level, Powell Said in Remarks Prepared for Delivery at a National Association for Business Economics Conference In Nashville, Tennessee.
「通貨緊縮已經普遍存在,並最近的數據顯示,朝着穩定回歸2%的目標通脹率取得了進展,」 鮑威爾在爲納什維爾的國家商業經濟學協會會議準備的發言中說。
"if the Economy Evolves Broadly as Expected, Policy Will Move Over Time Toward a More Neutral Stance," Powell Said. "but We Are Not on Any Preset Course. the Risks Are Two-Sided, and We Will Continue to Make Our Decisions Meeting by Meeting."
「如果經濟走勢符合預期,政策將逐漸朝着更加中立的立場發展,」 鮑威爾說。「但我們沒有制定任何預設路線。風險是雙向的,我們將繼續逐次做出決定。」
The Fed Cut Rates by Half a Percentage Point at Its Sept. 17-18 Meeting, Lowering the Range of Its Policy Rate From a 20-Year High of 5.25%-5.50%, Which It Had Maintained for 14 Months, to the Current 4.75%-5.00% Range. Economic Projections Released at That Meeting Showed the Median Policymaker Expectation Was for the Rate to Decline Further to the 4.25%-4.50% Range by the End of the Year, to the 3.25%-3.50% Range by the End of 2025, and for Policy Easing to End in 2026 With the Rate Around the Longer-Run Estimated "Neutral" Level of 2.9%.
聯儲局在9月17-18日的會議上將利率下調了半個百分點,將政策利率區間從5.25%-5.50%(保持了14個月之久的20年高點)降至當前的4.75%-5.00%區間。那次會議公佈的經濟預測顯示,中位數決策者預期利率到年底將進一步下降至4.25%-4.50%區間,到2025年底進一步下降至3.25%-3.50%區間,政策寬鬆將在2026年結束,利率在長期預期的「中立」水平2.9%左右。
But Investors Have Been Divided Over Whether the U.S. Central Bank Will Slip Into a Series of Quarter-Percentage-Point Cuts Now or Perhaps Be Prompted to Make Another Large Cut if the Job Market Weakens or Inflation Slows More Than Expected.
但投資者對聯儲局是否會立即進行一系列四分之一百分點的減息意見分歧,或許會在就業市場疲弱或通脹放緩超出預期時被促使再次進行大幅減息。
Powell's Reference to "Two-Sided" Risks, However, Points to an Open Debate as Data Accumulate, With The Release on Friday of the U.S. Employment Report for September Being The First of Two Major Labor Market Reports the Fed Will Receive Before Its Nov. 6-7 Meeting. the Most Recent Inflation Data Showed a Headline Rate of Just 2.2%, Near the Fed's Target, While a "Core" Measure Stripped of Food and Energy Costs Has Been Stalled Around 2.6% to 2.7% for Four Months.
鮑威爾對"雙邊"風險的提及指向一場隨着數據積累而展開的辯論,美國9月份就業報告將於週五發佈,這是聯儲局11月6-7日會議前將收到的兩份主要勞動力市場報告之一。最近的通脹數據顯示,總體率僅爲2.2%,接近聯儲局的目標,而去除食品和能源成本的"核心"指標在過去四個月一直停滯在2.6%至2.7%左右。
Powell, However, Said He Felt That "Broader Economic Conditions ... Set the Table for Further Disinflation."
不過,鮑威爾表示他認爲「更廣泛的經濟狀況... 爲進一步通貨緊縮做好了準備。」
Goods Prices Have Been Declining, While the Once-Sticky Aspects of the Service Industry Saw Inflation Now "Close to Its Pre-Pandemic Pace," Powell Said.
商品價格一直在下降,而服務業中一度黏性較強的方面如今看到通貨膨脹現在「接近疫情前的速度,」鮑威爾說。
Progress on Housing Inflation Has Been "Sluggish," the Fed Chief Said, but "the Growth Rate in Rents Charged to New Tenants Remains Low. as Long as That Remains the Case, Housing Services Inflation Will Continue to Decline."
住房通脹的進展一直「緩慢,」聯儲局主席表示,但「對新租戶收取的租金增長率仍然較低。只要情況仍然如此,住房服務通脹將繼續下降。」
The Job Market Remains "Solid," He Said, With a 4.2% Unemployment Rate Still a Low Level and Around That Which Fed Officials Consider Sustainable in the Long Run With Inflation at the Central Bank's Target.
他說,就業市場仍然「穩固,」4.2%的失業率仍然是一個低水平,並且在長期內考慮通脹目標時是可持續的水平。
"Overall, the Economy Is in Solid Shape; We Intend to Use Our Tools to Keep It There," Powell Said, Adding That the Fed Had Made "a Good Deal of Progress" in Lowering Inflation Without a Sharp Rise in Joblessness.
「總的來說,經濟形勢穩固;我們打算利用我們的工具保持這種狀態,」鮑威爾說,還表示聯儲局在降低通脹的同時沒有出現大幅度增加失業率方面已經取得了「相當大的進展。」
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
(霍華德·施耐德報道;保羅·西馬奧編輯)
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))