美国股市在过去两个月里动荡不安，由于人们担心美联储紧缩政策将把美国经济推入衰退，标普500指数上周五出现自2001年以来持续时间最长的单周下跌，接近熊市。美国银行上周进行的一项基金经理调查显示，对经济衰退的担忧超过了通胀和俄乌战争等尾部风险，投资者对股市的投资比重降至两年来的最低水平。Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics
Although the S & P 500 avoided falling into a bear market on Friday, Morgan Stanley strategists said it was too early to be optimistic about the stock market.
"given that the risks to US economic growth are just emerging, it is too early to be bullish," strategists led by Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson, one of Wall Street's best-known bears, wrote on Monday.
Us stocks have been volatile over the past two months as the S & P 500 posted its longest weekly decline since 2001, close to a bear market, on Friday amid fears that Fed tightening would push the US economy into recession. A survey of fund managers conducted by Bank of America Corporation last week showed that concerns about recession outweighed tail risks such as inflation and the war between Russia and Ukraine, and investors' exposure to the stock market fell to its lowest level in two years.
The biggest risk areas include declining consumer spending power and willingness, rising profit pressures, excess inventories and cyclical declines in technology spending, Wilson said.
Wilson said the S & P; 3400 forecast, which is 13 per cent below current levels, more accurately reflects the risks of earnings growth; Wilson expects the S & P; 500 to fall to that level by the end of the second quarter.
"until then, the 'toxic' bear market rally should be used to reduce holdings in the sectors most vulnerable to the next earnings season," he said. "
The strategist still reduces his holdings in cyclical technology stocks and non-essential consumer goods stocks, and takes a neutral view on Internet and software stocks.。
Meanwhile, not everyone is so pessimistic.David J. Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Group, expects the S & P 500 to rise 10% this year as earnings per share are expected to grow 8%.
Edit / Corrine
