Focus Today

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

1. CICC: Hong Kong stocks may continue to consolidate in the short term, and structural opportunities should be seized.

2. Goldman Sachs Group: it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points and will not accelerate the pace of interest rate increases in order to combat inflation.

3. Guosheng Securities: limited room for index adjustment, pay attention to the rotation of high-prosperity plates such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, etc.

4. CITIC: the consumption boom will be further repaired. It is recommended to continue to increase the configuration based on the two main lines.

5. Shanxi Securities: with the gradual clarity of the expectations of the China News, we will continue to pay attention to the high-growth sectors of new energy and military industry.

6. Guotai Junan: callback layout growth and track dragon shares

7. CITIC: bank valuation space is open, waiting for catalytic signal

8. Rich countries: maintain optimistic judgment in the second half of the year, configure five main lines, and be optimistic about "short-term recovery + long-term logic" industries

9. Bank of America Securities: reiterate Kuaishou Technology-W "buy" rating, target price of HK $117,000,000

10. BoCom International: maintain Meituan-W "buy" rating, target price rises to HK $247

11. Guohai Securities: maintain Tencent's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $437

12. Bank of America: maintain Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $4

13. Caitong Securities: give Huazhu Group Limited-S "overweight" rating, overseas recovery is strong

14. Credit Suisse: give Want Want China a "neutral" rating with a target price of HK $7.50

I. Macro-market

• CICC: Hong Kong stocks may continue to consolidate in the short term, and structural opportunities should be seized.
  

CICC issued a research report saying that as external fluctuations and reduced policy support may affect the upward action ability of the market, we judge that the market may continue to consolidate in the short term. However, if the divergence trend of economic growth and policy cycle between China and the United States continues, we believe that the medium-term upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market will remain unchanged. In terms of investment advice, in view of the current macro environment, we believe that sectors that provide cash flow certainty will still be a good choice.

• Goldman Sachs Group: it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points and will not accelerate the pace of interest rate increases in order to combat inflation.

Economist Goldman Sachs Group believes that when the Fed sets interest rates next week, it will not be "full fire" in order to fight inflation. Jan Hatzius, chief economist, said inflation expectations softened and gasoline prices fell, so FOMC is not expected to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in the near future, and will raise interest rates by only 75 basis points at the July meeting. From another point of view, if the interest rate is raised by 100 basis points this time, the rate of interest increase in the remaining three meetings of the year will be reduced by 75 basis points, and the effect of adding more points in the remaining three meetings during the year will not be much different.

II. Industry plate

• Guosheng Securities: limited room for index adjustment, pay attention to the rotation of high-prosperity plates such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, etc.

Guosheng Securities Research report pointed out that the current index is in a small adjustment cycle in the upward trend; it is expected that the downward adjustment space is limited, the high probability will maintain the central concussion trend. With the improvement of the macro-economy in the future, the index still has further upward momentum after shock. The market still belongs to the structural market of plate rotation, paying attention to the rotation opportunities of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries and other related sectors in the industry.

• CITIC: the consumption boom will be further repaired. It is recommended to continue to increase the configuration based on the two main lines.

CITIC said that with the reduction of the impact of the epidemic and the landing of stable growth policies, the consumption boom will be further repaired. It is suggested that the consumption allocation should be increased based on two main lines: one is that the excellent leading enterprises under the long-term logic are underestimated by the decline caused by the market environment or phased factors, especially the strong track leaders, including liquor, sports, makeup and so on. Second, the local epidemic gradually eased the expected lower marginal repair opportunities, mainly including the travel industry chain under the expected recovery of the epidemic and the aquaculture and planting industries under the main line of periodic recovery. Considering the upward expectation of Q3 inflation expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to the phased opportunities of agriculture, food and other essential categories.

• Shanxi Securities: with the gradual clarity of the expectations of the China News, we will continue to pay attention to the high-growth sectors of new energy and military industry.

Shanxi Securities believes that the risks of interest rate hikes and stagflation in foreign countries still exist, and the epidemic situation is repeated again, but with the restart of the "Beixi No.1" and the signing of the security agreement on black grain, the impact of the geographical conflict has been alleviated. Domestically, hot spots have continued to focus on new energy and policy bottom track in the past two weeks, but the switching within the plate has not slowed down, and funds continue to look for certainty in the process of spreading to the upstream and downstream and related industries. We judge that market confidence after ups and downs needs to be reshaped, and suggest to focus on and lay out the market value stocks and industry leaders with strong profitability, better defense capability and room for valuation and repair. at the same time, with the gradual clarity of the expectations of the China News, we will continue to pay attention to the high-growth sectors of new energy and military industry.

• Guotai Junan: callback layout growth and track dragon shares

Guotai Junan said that the callback layout grew with the racetrack dragon shares. In the next stage, the two major investment themes are expected to continue to go out of excess. The first category is the new economic growth stocks of science and technology, such as new energy, digital economy, and self-control under the background of transformation. The second category should pay attention to the expansion of competitive advantage in the medium-term stock economy. And the share price has been fully adjusted. Recommendations: 1) high prosperity growth: electric vehicles / photovoltaic / wind power / military / computer innovation / digital industry; 2) consumer medicine and other track dragon stocks: liquor / hotel / live pigs / medical equipment / consumer health care / CDMO.

• CITIC: bank valuation space is open, waiting for catalytic signal

CITIC research newspaper pointed out that in the second quarter of this year, the epidemic in some regions repeatedly triggered pessimistic expectations of the market for macroeconomic trends and the quality of bank assets, and the switching of superimposed market style. the proportion of active funds in the banking sector has fallen to the lowest level since the beginning of the epidemic, and the sector has been further adjusted since July due to the impact of the "loan break" incident, and industry valuations have been at an all-time low. On the macroeconomic side, the improvement in the total amount and structure of financial data in June to a certain extent reflects the gradual recovery of the economy after the epidemic. With the continuous landing of stable growth policies, the orderly optimization of real estate policies and the weakening of the impact of local epidemics, industry valuation is expected to be repaired step by step. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the follow-up "loan break" incident handling plan and the policy trend of the real estate industry.

• Rich countries: maintain optimistic judgment in the second half of the year, configure five main lines, and be optimistic about "short-term recovery + long-term logic" industries

Rich country fund Chen Jie said that he maintained an optimistic judgment on the second half of the year, believing that the equity risk premium could continue to improve in the second half of this year, and predicted that the industry style in the second half of this year would be balanced, with five main lines in industry allocation: (recovery) in the middle reaches of the manufacturing industry, on the one hand, costs are improving, on the other hand, demand is recovering; (policy) policies will be relaxed in the second half of the year, and tend to allocate real estate and infrastructure. (growth) allocation of new energy, smart driving, semiconductors, etc.; (inflation) upstream resources, pig industry, etc.; (certainty) liquor, medicine and other stable growth industries.

III. Individual stocks

• Bank of America Securities: reiterate$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $Buy rating with a target price of HK $117

BofA Securities released a research report that reiterated Kuaishou Technology's "buy" rating and expected revenue in the second quarter of this year to reach 20.8 billion yuan (up 9% from a year earlier). When midline advertising revenue grew 9% to 10.8 billion yuan, the performance of e-commerce and live streaming business remained stable, with a target price of HK $117, which is expected to turn a profit in 2024 in accordance with general accounting standards (GAAP). The company, which will report second-quarter results, believes that investors have long expected the impact of the epidemic on revenue and is looking forward to cost control measures to improve gross margins in the second quarter.

• BoCom International: maintenance$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price rises to HK $247

BoCom International released a research report saying that revenue in the second quarter of this year is expected to be 49 billion yuan (up 12% year-on-year), slightly higher than market expectations, while the target price has been raised by 5.6% from HK $234 to HK $247 to maintain Meituan-W "buy" rating. According to the report, Meituan's takeout orders should return to positive growth in June. Daily orders are expected to grow 1.5% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, with revenue rising 11%, with an average profit of about 0.8 yuan per unit. Flash purchases drive retail business growth. Meituan preferred fine operation and narrowed losses. The bank believes that the company's core business is resilient and is optimistic about improvements in flash buying and grocery shopping.

• Guohai Securities: maintain$Tencent (00700.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price of HK $437

According to a research report issued by Guohai Securities, to maintain Tencent's "buy" rating, it is estimated that FY2022-24 revenue will be 5660max 6290 / 699.9 billion yuan, and the return net profit will be 1305 pound 1611 / 189.1 billion yuan (NON-IFRS caliber is 1156max 1301 / 150.8 billion yuan), giving the target market capitalization 3.62 trillion yuan and the target price 437 Hong Kong dollars. According to the report, the value brought by the connection between video number and WeChat Mini Programs, official account, community and other scenes as well as the interaction between public and private domains should not be underestimated.

• Bank of America: maintain$Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price HK $4

Bank of America Securities released a research report that maintained Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd's "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $4. The company recently announced that it would spend more than 6.6 billion yuan to acquire a 19% stake in Yunnan Aluminum. Considering that the return on equity is much higher than that of Chinalco, the purchase price is only 5.5% higher than the previous closing price. The bank believes that the transaction price is reasonable in response to Yunnan Aluminum's 1.9 times price-to-book ratio / price-to-earnings ratio in fiscal year 2021. The bank expects that the above transactions will help to further solve the problem of inter-industry competition and is also in line with the theme of state-owned enterprise reform, and believes that Chinalco can enhance its industry status and profitability through economies of scale, as well as increase green aluminum production capacity. bring synergy to business operations and help improve financial indicators.

• Caitong Securities:$Huazhu Group Limited-S (01179.HK) $"overweight" rating, overseas recovery is strong

According to a research report issued by Caitong Securities, the net profit of returning to the mother in 2022-24 is expected to be 0.6Compare 22.1 / 3.38 billion yuan when it is rated as "overweight" by Huazhu Group Limited-S. The domestic RevPAR of the company's 2022Q2 is 141 yuan /-32.9%, returning to 69% in 19 years, with a month-on-month ratio of + 6.8%; overseas RevPAR is 66 euros / + 233.3%, returning to 93% in 19 years, of which RevPAR in June 22 has recovered to 99% in 19 years.

• Credit Suisse: to$Want Want China (00151.HK) $"neutral" rating with a target price of HK $7.50

According to a research report released by Credit Suisse, Want Want China is given a "neutral" rating, with a forecast of + 5 per cent for this year's sales / net profit of 2 per cent, a compound annual growth rate of 3 per cent for 2021-24, and a compound annual growth rate of 5 per cent for net profit, with a target price of HK $7.50. The bank likes the company's multi-brand and omni-channel strategy and expects revenue growth to normalize in the next few years, with low to medium-single-digit growth.