Focus Today

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

1. Mo: the Fed may slow the rate of interest rate hike from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

2. Goldman Sachs Group: it is expected that demand will push the oil price to rebound this year, with Brent reaching as high as US $130 per barrel.

3. Xiao Mo: us stocks may rebound to all-time highs in the next few years

4. CICC: the semiconductor industry is in the downward phase of the cycle, and the time to lay out the next cycle may not be far away.

5. CITIC: the supply and demand of new energy vehicles continue to improve, promoting the prosperity of the industry

6. Galaxy Securities: the emerging business income of the communications industry has increased significantly, and the new digital infrastructure has exceeded expectations.

7. Tianfeng Securities: semiconductor domestic replacement to make up for the global downward cycle, the growth rate of materials is expected to be better than equipment in the second half of the year.

8. CITIC Construction Investment Corporation: the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium is difficult to reverse fundamentally.

9. CICC: stock prices drop steadily in July, and it still takes time to restore prosperity.

10. Morgan Stanley: XPeng Inc. 's new SUV flagship G9 could be a key catalyst in the second half of the year.

11. UBS: maintain Hua Hong Semiconductor's "sell" rating, raising the target price to HK $17.50

12. Lyon: lowered Techtronic Industries's target price to HK $104and reiterated his buy rating.

13. Bank of China International: it is expected that the mainland streaming market will hit bottom this year, the first choice is Kuaishou Technology-W

14. CITIC: maintain Longfor Group's "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $30

I. Macro-market

• Mo: the Fed may slow the rate of interest rate hike from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

Grace Peters, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co Private Bank: this is the first time we have heard some good news in a long time, so the market is likely to continue this rally. We agree with the trend of inflation, but if we take a closer look at the CPI data, we will find that inflation is very wide-ranging and sticky, and it will only decline slowly from now on. That means the Fed is likely to slow the rate of rate hike from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

• Goldman Sachs Group: it is expected that demand will push the oil price to rebound this year, with Brent reaching as high as US $130 per barrel.

Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group, said gasoline and crude oil prices are expected to rebound by the end of the year because the market still needs to strike a balance between rising demand and tight supply. Brent crude futures could reach as high as $130 a barrel, while U. S. gasoline retail prices will return to about $5 a gallon. Prices need to remain at the above level in order to finally solve the problem of market gap.

• Xiao Mo: us stocks may rebound to all-time highs in the next few years
  

David Kelly, global strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co Asset Management, said the stock market could rebound to an all-time high in the next few years as the US economy shows signs of cooling. "it will take some time for inflation to fall back to 2%, but as long as we make progress in that direction, there is no need to plunge the economy into recession," Kelly said. If there is a period when inflation is slowly falling and the economy is slowly moving forward, but can maintain profit margins, I think the outlook for the stock market is pretty good. "

II. Industry plate

• CICC: the semiconductor industry is in the downward phase of the cycle, and the time to lay out the next cycle may not be far away.

CICC released a research report that said that semiconductors are both growth + cycle industry, previous cycles have similarities and differences, the semiconductor cycle since 1978 is reviewed. The bank believes that the average 4murl 5 years experience a semiconductor cycle, showing "bull long bear short" characteristics; from the perspective of secondary market investment, in the upside and downside stages, the SOX index usually goes through "Davis double click" and "Davis double kill"; in the process of cycle bottoming and reversal, the SOX index is often nine months ahead of the fundamentals 3k; in each cycle, there are opportunities for stocks to significantly outperform the SOX index. Referring to the historical data, it is considered that 2022 is in the downward phase of the cycle, the current valuation is already at the bottom of history, and the time to lay out the next cycle may not be far away.

• CITIC: the supply and demand of new energy vehicles continue to improve, promoting the prosperity of the industry

CITIC pointed out that in July 2022, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 593000, month-on-month-0.5%, year-on-year + 118.82%, permeability 24.5%. Monthly sales maintained steady growth: on the one hand, supply improvement superimposed by high oil prices led to order growth; on the other hand, policies to encourage consumption to further boost the growth of the car market in July. Overseas, the US market continues to grow at a high level, while the European market is affected by seasonal factors and semiconductor shortages as a whole, and the market is waiting for recovery. In the long run, the global new energy vehicles have entered a stage of rapid growth, and the current time continues to suggest to seize the opportunity of high-quality targets in the global electrified supply chain, especially the supply chain of Tesla, Inc., Ningde era and LG Chemistry.

• Galaxy Securities: the emerging business income of the communications industry has increased significantly, and the new digital infrastructure has exceeded expectations.

China Yinhe Securities Research News pointed out that according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the first half of 22, the total volume of telecommunications business had totaled 843 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year, maintaining a high growth rate; and the total revenue of telecommunications business had totaled 815.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% over the same period last year. Telecom business revenue has grown steadily. Communications infrastructure has been continuously advanced, with a total of 1.854 million 5G base stations completed and opened, with 5G construction and user penetration in the eastern region taking the lead, the mobile Internet access traffic in the central region leading the growth rate, and the Dou value in some western provinces reaching new highs. The total length of optical cable lines has increased steadily, and the coverage and service capacity of gigabit optical networks have been continuously improved. The marginal improvement of the prosperity of the communications sub-industry is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of valuation, and the certainty of high performance is stronger in the medium to long term.

• Tianfeng Securities: semiconductor domestic replacement to make up for the global downward cycle, the growth rate of materials is expected to be better than equipment in the second half of the year.

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the domestic substitution of semiconductors makes up for the global downward cycle, and the growth rate of materials is expected to be better than that of equipment in the second half of the year, focusing on the expansion opportunities of the Yangtze River storage industry chain and the expansion opportunities brought by car scenery storage. It is recommended to pay attention to materials, equipment and components.

• CITIC Construction Investment Corporation: the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium is difficult to reverse fundamentally.

Citic Construction Investment Research News pointed out that due to the release of supply there is more uncertainty, so the downward elasticity of supply is greater. However, lithium consumption is growing rapidly, with an average annual compound growth rate of 15% from 2015 to 2020. At present, the permeability of new energy vehicles has entered the acceleration period of the S-shaped growth curve. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of lithium consumption from 2021 to 2025 will further accelerate to about 30%. If you consider the promotion of lithium consumption by new market models, such as power exchange mode, battery rental mode, etc., the upward elasticity of lithium consumption will be enlarged. The elasticity of supply is downward, the elasticity of consumption is upward, and the supply is tight or normalized. the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease after 2023, but it is difficult to reverse fundamentally. The overall acceleration of the profit transfer of the industrial chain to the upstream mine end, and the profit is concentrated in the resource side is a long-term trend. The profit share of the resource-lithium salt processing sector has gradually increased from 20% of the 80% in 2021 to the current 60% of the 40%, and this proportion is continuing to expand.

• CICC: stock prices drop steadily in July, and it still takes time to restore prosperity.

China International Capital Corporation pointed out that the price of the stock housing market fell steadily in July, and the downward trend of prosperity slowed slightly; however, the leading supply and demand indicators showed that the potential demand for houses was still weak, and sellers' price expectations were also under pressure. it is believed that it may take some time for the market boom to repair. Superimposed in the third quarter, the maturity of the credit debt of real estate enterprises is relatively intensive, and there is also uncertainty in the introduction and implementation rhythm of the specific measures of "guarantee delivery buildings and stabilize expectations". It is believed that the volatility of short-term real estate stocks affected by mood may be strengthened. however, in the medium-term dimension, the certainty of improving the concentration of high-quality leading real estate enterprises is still high.

III. Individual stocks

• Big Motors:$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $New SUV flagship G9 could be a key catalyst in the second half of the year

Morgan Stanley reported that XPeng Inc. SUV flagship G9 opened pre-order on Wednesday (10th). With the debut of the G9, the company will disclose information about the interior and related functions of its model, which is expected to be a key catalyst for XPeng Inc. and his main products in the high-end SUV field in the second half of this year. The bank maintains an "overweight" rating on XPeng Inc..

• UBS: maintain$Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) $"sell" rating, target price raised to HK $17.50

UBS released a research report saying it maintained Hua Hong Semiconductor's "sell" rating, but raised its basic earnings per share forecast for 2022-23 by 18 per cent to 26 per cent to reflect recent operating conditions and a slower-than-expected decline in gross profit margin, raising its target price to HK $17.50. The company's second-quarter revenue rose 4 per cent to $621 million on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which was about $615 million above the growth guidance, mainly due to a recovery in broad demand and improved average product prices. The bank pointed out that in the context of the current manufacturers' continued destocking and the normalization of supply and demand of contract manufacturers, it believes that the impact will be reflected at the supply chain level, and the company's capacity utilization is expected to begin to adjust in the fourth quarter and fall to 80%, 90% next year.

• Lyon: downgrade$Techtronic Industries (00669.HK) $Target price to HK $104, reiterating the buy rating

Lyon reported that net profit growth outpaced market growth in the first half of 2022 and that long-term growth was expected to normalize to the mid-ten-digit level in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates. The bank cut its core profit forecasts for 2022, 2023 and 2024 by 13.2 per cent, 16.9 per cent and 14.7 per cent, respectively, and lowered its target price from HK $183to HK $104, maintaining its buy rating.

• Bank of China International: it is expected that the mainland streaming market will hit bottom this year, the first choice$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $

Bank of China International released a report that expects the mainland streaming market to hit bottom this year and begin to rebound next year. In the listed streaming platform, the bank listed the order of preferences, first Kuaishou Technology-W, followed by Bilibili Inc.-SW, Tencent Music, Hello Group, HUYA Inc. and DouYu International Holdings Limited tied for the bottom of the list. According to the report, Kuaishou is considered to be closely integrated with the ecological circle, as well as comprehensive network infrastructure to support cash realization and improve efficiency, in order to achieve a break-even, listed as the first choice of the industry.

• CITIC: maintain$Longfor Group (00960.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price of HK $30

CITIC released a research report that maintains Longfor Group's "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $30. The bank is full of confidence in Longhu credit and believes that the company has the opportunity to take advantage of market conditions to increase land reserves and optimize the structure of goods value. Longhu is the most able to adhere to financial discipline among private enterprises, with assets mainly distributed in first-and second-tier cities, small fluctuation in sales rebates, light short-and medium-term debt burden, and large investment property reserves, which is completely different from some highly leveraged private enterprises.