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3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes

3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes

3只股票将在下一次大幅加息之前抛售
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/01 06:53

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Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest remarks on monetary policy, investors are more concerned with which stocks to sell. The central bank remains committed to continuing hiking interest rates, in its quest to curb inflation. In turn, the market may have a ways to go before truly bottoming out.

在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就货币政策发表最新言论后,投资者更关心的是卖出哪些股票。央行仍然致力于继续提高利率,以求遏制通胀。反过来,市场在真正触底之前可能还有一段路要走。

This points to more volatility ahead of stocks across-the-board. Worse yet, richly-priced growth stocks in particular could see more declines greater than that of the overall market for two reasons.

这表明,在全线股市之前,股市将出现更大的波动。更糟糕的是,价格丰厚的成长型股票尤其可能出现比整体市场更大的跌幅,原因有两个。

First, higher rates will put even more pressure on their premium valuations. Even if they've already experienced a round or two of severe multiple compression from the Fed's initial increases to interest rates.

首先,更高的利率将给它们的溢价估值带来更大压力。即使他们已经经历了一轮或两轮从美联储最初加息以来的严重多重压缩。

Second, higher rates make the chances of a recession in the coming year even greater. A recession will likely result in many companies experiencing a slowing down of revenue and earnings growth.

其次,更高的利率使得来年经济衰退的可能性更大。经济衰退可能会导致许多公司的收入和收益增长放缓。

Downside risk related to these factors is in particular acute with these three stocks to sell. Ahead of a further drop on valuation/slowing growth concerns, consider it a good time to cash out.

与这些因素相关的下行风险尤其严重,这三只股票将被抛售。在对估值/增长放缓的担忧进一步下降之前,请认为现在是套现的好时机。

ABNB
ABNB
AirBNB
爱彼迎
$113.38
$113.38
CVNA
CVNA
Carvana
Carvana
$33.12 PLTR
33.12美元PLTR
Palantir
帕兰提尔
$
$
7.79
7.79

AirBNB (ABNB)

爱彼迎(ABNB)

Source: Diego Thomazini / Shutterstock
消息来源:迭戈·托马齐尼/Shutterstock

After falling nearly 60% during the tech sell-offs earlier this year, shares in vacation rental platform AirBNB (NASDAQ:ABNB) made a meaningful move higher in late July/early August.

在今年早些时候科技股抛售期间下跌近60%后,度假租赁平台的股价爱彼迎纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:ABNB)在7月底/8月初迈出了有意义的一步。

This largly was the result of the "relief rally" that occurred at the time, built on hopes that Fed pivot on interest would come sooner than expected.

这在很大程度上是当时发生的“释然性反弹”的结果,这种反弹建立在对美联储利率转向将比预期更早到来的希望上。

Of course, this has proven to be the case. With this, growth names like ABNB stock have slid in recent days. This could continue until if/when a Fed pivot does occur, for exactly the reasons I mentioned above when talking about growth stocks in general.

当然,事实也证明了这一点。受此影响,ABNB股票等成长型股票最近几天出现下滑。这可能会持续到美联储真的转向时,原因正是我在上面讨论成长型股票时提到的原因。

While a premium valuation makes sense, given forecasts calling for double-digit revenue and earnings growth, rising rates could put more pressure on AirBNB's forward valuation (52.1x).

虽然溢价估值是有道理的,但考虑到营收和收益将实现两位数增长的预测,利率上升可能会给爱彼迎的预期估值(52.1倍)带来更大压力。

A recession resulting from rising rates could also bring an end to the "revenge travel" trend that was instrumental in its post-pandemic comeback making ABNB among the stocks to sell on recession fears.

利率上升导致的经济衰退也可能终结“复仇之旅”的趋势,这种趋势有助于荷兰银行在大流行后卷土重来,使其成为因担心经济衰退而抛售的股票之一。

Carvana (CVNA)

Carvana(CVNA)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
来源:乔纳森·韦斯/Shutterstock.com

Already in the stock market junkyard, it may seem as if Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) has little more room to fall from here, let along make a list of the top stocks to sell. The online automotive sales platform is down more than 90% from its high water mark.

已经在股市垃圾场,看起来像是Carvana(纽约证券交易所代码:CVNA)几乎没有更多的下跌空间,让我们列出一个最值得出售的股票名单。这家在线汽车销售平台从其高水位线下跌了90%以上。

Even so, that doesn't mean it can experience another high double-digit price decline. Higher interest rates will make high-growth-but-unprofitable stocks like CVNA stock even less appealing. The company is expected to report high losses this year ($8.61 per share) and next year ($4.72 per share).

即便如此,这并不意味着它可以再次经历两位数的价格下跌。更高的利率将使CVNA股票等高增长但无利可图的股票变得更不具吸引力。预计该公司今年(每股8.61美元)和明年(每股4.72美元)将出现巨额亏损。

Changing economic conditions have already resulted in the beginning of the end for the used car bubble. It may be just about to pop.

不断变化的经济状况已经开始导致二手车泡沫的终结。它可能就快爆了。

It may be too late to sell into strength, like hedge fund Tiger Global did with its Carvana position earlier this month. Still, you may want to cash out now, as it could re-hit its 52-week low ($19.50 per share).

现在抛售变得强大可能已经太晚了,就像对冲基金老虎全球本月早些时候对其Carvana头寸所做的那样。不过,你现在可能想要套现,因为它可能会重新触及52周低点(每股19.50美元)。

Palantir (PLTR)

帕兰提尔(Palantir)

Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com
来源:Ascannio/Shutterstock.com

Palantir's (NYSE:PLTR) meme stock days have long since passed. Shares now sell for a mere fraction of their all-time high, at the height of "meme stock madness."

Palantir‘s(纽约证券交易所代码:PLTR)表情包股票日早就过去了。目前股价仅为历史最高水平的一小部分,达到了“表情包股票狂热”的顶峰。

Nevertheless, as interest rates continue rising, PLTR stock could continue to slide. At today's prices, the big data firm sells for 143.5x this year's estimated earnings. Yes, this extremely high multiple will come down, assuming it delivers earnings of 16 cents per share next year. This would give it a 47.3x earnings multiple.

然而,随着利率的继续上升,PLTR的股票可能会继续下滑。按今天的价格计算,这家大数据公司的市盈率为今年预期收益的143.5倍。是的,假设明年每股收益为16美分,这一极高的市盈率将会下降。这将使其市盈率达到47.3倍。

That said, it may prove tough to maintain such a high valuation. A few weeks ago, the company underwhelmed investors with its revised outlook.

话虽如此,但事实可能证明,维持如此高的估值可能会很困难。几周前,该公司修正后的财测并未给投资者留下深刻印象。

Revenues are expected to hit $1.9 billion this year, an only 23.2% increase from 2021. Falling short of CEO Alex Karp's past forecasts of 30% annualized growth through 2025, Palantir may be more deserving now of a far lower forward valuation.

预计今年的收入将达到19亿美元,仅比2021年增长23.2%。之前首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普曾预测,到2025年,Palantir的年化增长率将达到30%,但如果不能实现这一预期,Palantir现在可能更值得获得更低的远期估值。

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,托马斯·尼尔没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南.

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

InvestorPlace.com的撰稿人托马斯·尼尔自2016年以来一直在为基于网络的出版物撰写单一股票分析。

The post 3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes appeared first on InvestorPlace.

在下一次大幅加息之前出售的3只股票首先出现在InvestorPlace上。

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