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The Fed's Preferred Inflation Number Is Coming Today. What to Watch

The Fed's Preferred Inflation Number Is Coming Today. What to Watch

美聯儲偏愛的通脹數據將於今日出爐。看什麼?
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/09/30 04:52  · 前瞻

An important inflation reading for the Federal Reserve is coming today, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data for August.

美聯儲的一項重要通脹讀數將於今天公佈,美國經濟分析局將公佈8月份的個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數數據。

What To Know: The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. It's released on a monthly basis and shows changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the U.S.

要知道的內容:PCE價格指數是美聯儲首選的通脹指標。它每月發佈一次,顯示美國消費者購買的商品和服務的價格變化。

The core PCE data from July, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased to $23.7 billion, representing an increase of 0.1% month-over-month. The number came in below average economist estimates for a 0.3% jump.

7月份剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心PCE數據增至237億美元,環比增長0.1%。這一數字低於經濟學家預計的0.3%的平均增幅。

The July PCE inflation reading showed a 6.3% increase year-over-year, while core PCE inflation was up 4.6%. Economists are anticipating a 6.1% increase in PCE inflation in August and a 4.7% increase with food and energy prices removed.

7月份的PCE通脹讀數顯示,同比增長6.3%,而核心PCE通脹上漲4.6%。經濟學家預計8月份PCE通脹率將上漲6.1%,剔除食品和能源價格後將上漲4.7%。

The Federal Reserve will be paying close attention to the core PCE number as most economists expect the slide in crude oil prices last month to limit a potential increase in the headline inflation number.

美聯儲將密切關注核心PCE數據,因為多數經濟學家預計,上月原油價格的下滑將限制整體通脹數據的潛在增長。

Why It Matters: The $S&P 500 index (.SPX.US)$ traded lower after the government released its third GDP estimate on Thursday, which included a PCE inflation reading for the second quarter.

為什麼這很重要:這個$標普500指數 (.SPX.US)$在政府週四發佈第三次GDP估計後,股市走低,其中包括第二季度的PCE通脹讀數。

The Commerce Department said the PCE index increased 7.3% year-over-year last quarter, which is up from previous second-quarter estimates showing a reading of 7.1%. The second-quarter inflation reading was still slightly lower than the 7.5% reading in the first quarter.

美國商務部説,上季度PCE指數同比增長7.3%,高於此前估計的第二季度7.1%的讀數。第二季度的通脹讀數仍略低於第一季度的7.5%。

Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7% in the second quarter, which is up 0.3% from the previous two estimates, but down from the 5.6% increase in the first quarter.

扣除食品和能源的PCE物價指數第二季上升4.7%,較前兩次預估上升0.3%,但低於第一季5.6%的升幅。

Gross domestic product dropped at an unrevised annual rate of 0.6% last quarter, marking the second straight quarter of negative GDP. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is often viewed as a recession indicator.

上季度國內生產總值(GDP)未經修正的年率為下降0.6%,標誌着GDP連續第二個季度出現負增長。GDP連續兩個季度下滑通常被視為衰退指標。

Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.75% for the third straight time and indicated that it will continue to hike rates to fight runaway inflation in what has been the most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 40 years.

上週,美聯儲連續第三次將基準利率上調0.75%,並表示將繼續加息,以對抗失控的通脹。這是40多年來最激進的緊縮週期。

Following last week's increase, the Fed has raised rates by a total of 3% in 2022, and its target fed funds rate is at the highest levels seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

繼上週的加息之後,美聯儲在2022年總共加息了3%,其目標聯邦基金利率處於2008年金融危機之前以來的最高水平。

In a press conference following the decision on rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back down to its 2% goal.

在利率決定後的新聞發佈會上,美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾重申央行致力於將通脹率降至2%的目標。

"Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. We will keep at it until we're confident the job is done," Powell said.

鮑威爾説:“恢復物價穩定對於為實現最大限度的就業和長期穩定的物價奠定基礎至關重要。我們將繼續努力,直到我們有信心完成這項工作。”

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the PCE price index numbers for August at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

經濟分析局將於以下時間公佈8月份PCE物價指數上午8:30。東部時間星期五。

Price Action: The S&P 500 index futures were up 1% Friday ahead of the open, according to Benzinga Pro.

價格行動:根據Benzinga Pro的數據,標準普爾500指數期貨上週五開盤前上漲了1%。

Photo: Thomas Breher from Pixabay.

圖片來源:來自Pixabay的託馬斯·佈雷赫。

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