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How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility

How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility

投資者如何在動盪中賺取數百萬美元
InvestorPlace ·  2022/10/10 17:05

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示

It's been a crazy year in the markets, huh? But what if I told you that all this craziness is actually creating the money-making opportunity of the century

這是一個瘋狂在市場上待了一年,是吧?但如果我告訴你,所有這些瘋狂行為實際上正在創造本世紀最賺錢的機會?

You'd be skeptical. And that's fine. Just don't disregard me because I have a ton of data to prove that claim. Today, we sit on the cusp of arguably the biggest investment opportunity in the stock market… ever.

你會懷疑的。這很好。請不要忽視我,因為我有大量的數據可以證明這一説法。今天,我們坐在可以説是股票市場最大投資機會的尖端…永遠不會.

Yes, I'm aware of all the problems the world is facing today. Decades-high inflation. A U.S. Federal Reserve embarking on the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in over 40 years. A war in Europe for the first time since World War II. The highest gas prices and grocery prices in decades. The biggest stock market crash since 2008. 

是的,我知道當今世界面臨的所有問題。幾十年來的高通脹。美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)開始了40多年來最激進的加息週期。歐洲自二戰以來首次爆發戰爭。數十年來最高的汽油價格和食品雜貨價格。這是自2008年以來最大的股市崩盤。

Talk about unusual, volatile, scary.

談論不同尋常的,不穩定的,嚇人的.

Against that backdrop, I wouldn't blame you for wanting to run for the hills and take cover from the storm. But the great Warren Buffett once said that it is often best to be greedy when others are fearful. 

在這種背景下,我不會責怪你想要跑到山上躲避風暴。但偉大的沃倫·巴菲特曾經説過,在別人害怕的時候,往往最好是貪婪。

Everyone's fearful right now. 

現在每個人都很害怕。

The American Association of Individual Investors weekly survey has found that for two weeks in a row, the percentage of bearish investors in America has outnumbered the percentage of bullish investors by more than 40%. That's an unusually high number which marks "peak fear." Indeed, the net bull ratio has been this low only once before, in early March 2009 – the exact same week stocks bottomed after the 2008 financial crisis!

美國個人投資者協會的每週調查發現,連續兩週,美國看跌投資者的比例比看漲投資者的比例高出40%以上。這是一個異常高的數字,標誌着“恐懼達到頂峯”。事實上,淨多頭比率以前只有一次如此之低,那是在2009年3月初--就在同一周,股市在2008年金融危機後觸底!

Let that sink in for a moment… 

讓它沉浸在那一刻…

There's nothing but fear out there. Buffett would tell us to get greedy here. But should we heed those words of advice?

外面除了恐懼什麼都沒有。巴菲特會告訴我們在這裏要貪婪。但我們應該聽從這些忠告嗎?

Absolutely.

絕對一點兒沒錯.

Fear Can Be a Good Thing?

恐懼可以是一件好事嗎?

Over the past several months, my team and I have been studying the intricacies of stock market crashes throughout the history of modern capitalism – and we discovered something amazing. 

在過去的幾個月裏,我和我的團隊一直在研究現代資本主義歷史上錯綜複雜的股市崩盤--我們發現了一些令人驚訝的東西。

Specifically, we've discovered a rare stock market phenomenon that occurs about once every 10 years. And it consistently represents the best buying opportunities in U.S. stock market history. 

具體地説,我們發現了一個罕見的股市現象這種情況大約每10年發生一次。它一直代表着美國股市歷史上最好的買入機會。

More than that, we figured out how to quantitatively identify this phenomenon. Yes,  we have engineered a way to take advantage of it for massive profits.

更重要的是,我們找到了如何定量識別這種現象的方法。是的,我們有經過精心設計一種利用它來賺取鉅額利潤的方法。

Well, folks, guess what's happening right now? 

好吧,夥計們,猜猜現在發生了什麼?

This ultra-rare stock market phenomenon has emerged. And our models are flashing bright "Buy" signals.

這種極其罕見的股市現象已經出現。我們的車型閃耀着明亮的“Buy”"信號。

I know. That may sound pretty counterintuitive, considering what's going on in the market right now. 

我知道呀。考慮到目前市場的情況,這聽起來可能非常違反直覺。

But I'm staking my career on this claim – because it's really not an opinion. It's a fact. Backed by data, history, statistics and mathematics. Backed by the biggest market phenomenon in history. 

但我將我的職業生涯押在這一説法上--因為這真的不是一種觀點。這是事實。以數據、歷史、統計和數學為後盾。在歷史上最大的市場現象的支持下。

So, I repeat: We stand on the cusp of an opportunity of a lifetime. 

因此,我再説一遍:我們正站在千載難逢的機遇的邊緣。

By now, you're probably asking: OK, Luke, you have my attention…but where's the proof?

現在,你可能會問:好的,盧克,你引起了我的注意…但證據在哪裏呢?

Glad you asked because I have lots of that. Let's take a deep look. 

很高興你這麼問,因為我有很多這樣的東西。讓我們來深入看看。

Stock Prices Follow Fundamentals

股價跟隨基本面走勢

To understand the unique phenomenon my team and I have identified, we need to first understand the behavior patterns of stocks. 

要理解我和我的團隊發現的這一獨特現象,我們首先需要了解股票的行為模式。

In the short term, stocks are driven by myriad factors. These include geopolitics, interest rate,. inflation, elections, recession fears, and so on. 

短期內,股市受到多種因素的推動。這些因素包括地緣政治、利率等。通貨膨脹、選舉、對經濟衰退的擔憂等等。

Big picture, however, stocks are driven by one thing and one thing only: fundamentals.

然而,從整體上看,股票只由一件事驅動:基本面.

That is, at the end of the day, revenues and earnings drive stock prices. If a company's revenues and earnings trend upward over time, then the company's stock price will follow suit. Conversely, if a company's revenues and earnings trend downward over time, then the company's stock price will drop. 

也就是説,在一天結束時,收入收益推動股價上漲。如果一家公司的收入和收益隨着時間的推移呈上升趨勢,那麼該公司的股價也會隨之上升。相反,如果一家公司的收入和收益隨着時間的推移呈下降趨勢,那麼該公司的股價就會下跌。

That may sound like an oversimplification. But, honestly, it's not

這聽起來可能過於簡單化了。但是,説實話,不是的.

Just look at the following chart. It graphs the earnings per share of the S&P 500 (the blue line) alongside the price of the S&P 500 (the orange line) from 1988 to 2022. 

請看下面的圖表。它繪製了該公司的每股收益圖表標準普爾500指數(藍線)與標準普爾500指數(橙線)的價格從1988年到2022年。

As you can see, the blue line (earnings per share) lines up almost perfectly with the orange line (price). The two could not be more strongly correlated. Indeed, the mathematical correlation between the two is 0.93. That's incredibly strong. A perfect correlation is 1. A perfect anti-correlation is -1. 

正如你所看到的,藍線(每股收益)與橙線(價格)幾乎完全一致。兩者之間的關聯性再強不過了。事實上,兩者之間的數學關聯性是 0.93。這是令人難以置信的強大。完全相關是1。完全反相關是-1。

Therefore, the historical correlation between earnings and stock prices is about as perfectly correlated as anything gets in the real world.

所以呢,盈利和股價之間的歷史相關性幾乎與現實世界中的任何東西都完全相關。.

In other words, you can forget the Fed. You can forget inflation and geopolitics. You can forget trade wars, recessions, depressions, and financial crises. 

換句話説,你可以忘記美聯儲。你可以忘掉通脹和地緣政治。你可以忘記貿易戰、經濟衰退、大蕭條和金融危機。

We've seen all of that over the past 35 years – and yet, through it all, the correlation between earnings and stock prices never broke or even faltered at all. 

在過去的35年裏,我們看到了這一切--然而,在這一切過程中,收益和股價之間的相關性從未被打破,甚至根本沒有動搖。

At the end of the day, earnings drive stock prices. History is crystal clear on that. In fact, history is as clear on that as it is on anything, mathematically speaking.  

在一天結束時,盈利推動股價上漲。在這一點上,歷史是非常清楚的。事實上,從數學上講,歷史在這一點上和在任何事情上一樣清楚。

The phenomenon my team and I have identified has to do with this correlation. In fact, it has to do with a "break" in this correlation – a break that historically only arises when recession fears are peaking and has produced the greatest stock market buying opportunities in history.  

我和我的團隊發現的現象與這種相關性有關。事實上,這與這種關聯性的“中斷”有關-歷史上只有在經濟衰退擔憂達到頂峯時才會出現這種突破,並創造了歷史上最大的股市買入機會。

Great Divergence Creates Great Opportunities

大分流創造大好機遇

Every once in a while – specifically, about once a decade – earnings and revenues temporarily stop driving stock prices. 

每隔一段時間--具體地説,大約十年一次--暫時的收益和收入推動股價上漲。

We call this anomaly a "divergence."

我們把這種反常現象稱為“發散."

During these divergences, companies continue to see their revenues and earnings rise. But due to some macroeconomic fears, their stock prices will temporarily collapse. The result is that a company's stock price diverges from its fundamental growth trend. 

在這些分歧期間,公司的收入和收益繼續增長。但由於一些宏觀經濟方面的擔憂,它們的股價將暫時崩盤。其結果是,一家公司的股價偏離了其基本面增長趨勢。

Every time these rare divergences emerge, they turn into generational buying opportunities. Stock prices "snap back" to fundamental growth trends, and investors who bought the dip see their returns rocket. 

每當這些罕見的分歧出現時,它們就會變成幾代人的買入機會。股票價格從基本面的增長趨勢“迅速反彈”,買入下跌的投資者看到他們的回報飆升。

This has happened time and time again, like clockwork, throughout the market's history.

在整個市場的歷史上,這種情況一次又一次地發生,就像鐘錶一樣。

It happened in the late 1980s during the Savings & Loans crisis. High-quality growth companies – like Microsoft (MSFT) – saw their stock prices collapse while revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence doubled their money in a year and scored a jaw-dropping ~40,000% returns (on average) in the long run. 

這件事發生在20世紀80年代末在儲蓄和貸款危機期間。像這樣的高質量成長型公司微軟(MSFT)-看到他們的股價暴跌,而收入和收益繼續增長。利用這種差距獲利的投資者在一年內將資金翻了一番,從長期來看,他們獲得了令人瞠目結舌的~40000%的回報率(平均)。

And it happened in the early 2000s after the dot-com crash. High-quality growth companies – like Amazon (AMZN) – saw their stock prices plunge. But their revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence more than doubled their money in a year and scored more than 20,000% returns in the long run. 

這件事發生在21世紀初在互聯網崩盤之後。像這樣的高質量成長型公司亞馬遜(AMZN)-看到他們的股價暴跌。但他們的收入和收益一直在增長。利用這一差距獲利的投資者在一年內將資金增加了一倍以上,長期回報率超過20000%。

It happened again in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis. High-quality growth companies – like Salesforce (CRM) – saw their stock prices collapse. But their revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence almost tripled their money in a year and hit 10X returns in just five years. 

這件事又發生在 2008在大金融危機期間。像這樣的高質量成長型公司Salesforce(CRM)-眼看着他們的股價暴跌。但他們的收入和收益一直在增長。利用這種差異的投資者在一年內幾乎將資金增加了兩倍,並在短短五年內實現了10倍的回報。

This is the most profitable repeating pattern in stock market history. And it's happening again right now for the first time in 14 years. 

這是股市歷史上最有利可圖的重複模式。現在這種情況再次發生,這是14年來的首次。

The Final Word on Divergence

關於分歧的最後一句話

My team and I understand that market volatility always creates market opportunity

我和我的團隊瞭解這個市場波動性總是創造市場機遇.

So, amid the market's wild gyrations of 2022, we've made it our top priority to research market volatility and develop a stock-picking strategy to make tons of money during choppy markets. 

因此,在2022年市場的劇烈震盪中,我們的首要任務是研究市場波動性,並制定一種選股策略,以在動盪的市場中賺取大量資金。

That led us to making the biggest discovery in InvestorPlace history: the existence of rare divergence windows.

這讓我們做出了最大的發現投資商位置歷史:稀有發散窗口的存在性.

These divergence windows only appear about once a decade, amid peak market volatility. They open for very brief moments in time and only for certain stocks. But if you capitalize on them – by buying the right stocks at exactly the right moment – you can make a lot of money while everyone else is struggling to survive in a choppy market. 

這些分化窗口大約每十年才出現一次,當時正值市場波動的高峯期。它們的開盤時間非常短,而且只針對某些股票。但如果你利用這些機會--在正確的時間買入正確的股票--你可以賺很多錢,而其他所有人都在動盪的市場中掙扎求生。

More than that, these divergence windows give you a real shot at turning $10,000 investments into multi-million-dollar paydays. 

不僅如此,這些分散窗口讓你真正有機會將1萬美元的投資轉化為數百萬美元的發薪日。

The more we researched these divergence windows, the more excited we became. 

我們對這些發散窗口的研究越多,我們就越興奮。

But here's the most important part: Because these opportunities emerge out of fear in the markets – and because we've reached peak fear – my team and I have concluded that this ultra-rare investment opportunity is rapidly closing shut.

但最重要的是:因為這些機會來自市場的恐懼--也因為我們已經達到了恐懼的頂峯--我和我的團隊得出結論,這種極其罕見的投資機會快速關閉關閉.

This is your final chance to capitalize on what could be the biggest investment opportunity of your life. 

這可能是你一生中最大的投資機會,這是你最後的機會。

That's why we're calling this month the "Zero Hour." It's your final opportunity to capitalize on the 2022 divergence. 

這就是為什麼我們把這個月稱為“零點.這是你利用2022年分歧的最後機會。

To help you do that, we've put together an emergency broadcast – unsurprisingly dubbed the Zero Hour – to walk you through this enormous investment opportunity. We will go LIVE with that broadcast this Thursday afternoon, at 4 p.m. EST.

為了幫助你做到這一點,我們為你準備了一個緊急廣播-毫不意外地被稱為零點時刻-帶你度過這一巨大的投資機會。我們將在本週四下午4點進行現場直播。艾斯特。

In it, I'll unveil my No. 1 "late-stage" divergence stock to buy right now – for free. This is a stock that could easily soar hundreds of percent over the next year alone!

在這篇文章中,我將揭開我的頭號“晚期”發散股票的面紗,現在就可以免費購買。這隻股票很容易在接下來的一年裏飆升數百%!

More than that, I'll even give viewers the chance to access a brand-new, never-before-seen portfolio of divergence stocks set to soar over the next year.

更重要的是,我甚至會讓觀眾有機會接觸到一個全新的、前所未見的分散型股票投資組合,這些股票將在明年飆升。

This is certainly a broadcast you don't want to miss.

這當然是一場你不想錯過期待的轉播。

Reserve your seat now.

現在就預訂座位吧。

On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

截至發稿之日,盧克·蘭戈並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。

The post How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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