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How to Short Real Estate: 3 Ways to Profit From a Housing Market Crash

How to Short Real Estate: 3 Ways to Profit From a Housing Market Crash

如何做空房地產:3 從房地產市場暴跌中獲利的方法
InvestorPlace ·  2022/10/10 17:16

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In 2007, Michael Burry — the then-head of Scion Capital — did something unthinkable: he shorted the real estate market. As the housing market inevitably collapsed, Burry and a handful of other savvy investors earned billions on what is still considered a do-or-die investment. Now, with rumors continuing to swirl that a 2022 housing market crash may be more fact than fiction, interest in shorting real estate is growing substantially. What's more, with the number of investing options available today, anyone can hedge against housing with relative ease. Should you short the housing market?

2007年,時任谷歌首席執行官的邁克爾·伯裏賽昂資本-做了一件不可思議的事情:他做空了房地產市場。隨着房地產市場不可避免地崩潰,Burry和其他幾個精明的投資者從仍然被認為是生死攸關的投資中賺取了數十億美元。現在,隨着有關2022年房地產市場崩盤可能更多地是事實而不是虛構的傳言繼續流傳,做空房地產的興趣正在大幅增長。更重要的是,如今有這麼多的投資選擇,任何人都可以相對輕鬆地對衝房地產。你應該做空房地產市場嗎?

Frankly, it depends — and in more ways than one. The history of housing is one defined by long-term, relentless growth. Indeed home prices have had a vertical trajectory for the past few years, adding to the industry's normally strong growth. However, according to a number of economists, conditions are quickly reversing.

坦率地説,這要看情況--而且在很多方面都是如此。房地產業的歷史是一部由長期、無情的增長定義的歷史。事實上,過去幾年房價一直呈垂直上升趨勢,進一步推動了該行業通常強勁的增長。然而,根據一些經濟學家的説法,情況正在迅速逆轉。

Elevated mortgage rates and rampant inflation have pushed many would-be homebuyers out of the market completely. Meanwhile, a growing number of home owners are rushing to sell their houses to avoid losing money when prices fall. As such, many suspect that it's only a matter of time before home prices ease back down. Whether this results in a true 2008-style "housing market crash" remains to be seen.

居高不下的抵押貸款利率和猖獗的通脹已經將許多潛在的購房者完全趕出了市場。與此同時,越來越多的房主正爭先恐後地出售自己的房子,以避免在房價下跌時賠錢。因此,許多人懷疑房價回落只是時間問題。這是否會導致2008年那樣的“房地產市場崩盤”仍有待觀察。

Home prices fell in both July and August, the first drop in years. While this means a loss of wealth for many property owners, that doesn't mean there's no way to see green from a potentially steep housing correction. Let's take a look at some ways to profit from a potential housing recession.

房價在7月和8月都出現了下跌,這是多年來的首次下跌。雖然這對許多房主來説意味着財富的損失,但這並不意味着沒有辦法從潛在的大幅樓市回調中看到綠色。讓我們來看看從潛在的房地產衰退中獲利的一些方法。

Inverse Real Estate ETFs

反向房地產ETF

Inverse real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are perhaps the most straightforward way to capitalize from a wider housing pullback. These ETFs track the inverse of popular U.S. housing indices, like the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. Essentially, if home prices go up, these products will fall in value. But if home prices go down, the ETFs will rise. Accordingly, if you believe home prices are in for a downturn, inverse ETFs are an effective way to short the market.

反向房地產交易所交易基金(ETF)可能是從更廣泛的房地產回調中獲利的最直接的方式。這些ETF跟蹤流行的美國房地產指數的倒數,如道瓊斯美國房地產指數。從本質上講,如果房價上漲,這些產品的價值就會下降。但如果房價下跌,ETF就會上漲。因此,如果你認為房價將會下滑,反向ETF是做空市場的有效方式。

It's worth noting that these funds are undeniably risky. Home prices can theoretically rise infinitely, meaning these ETFs have no limit to how far they can fall. Additionally, some of these funds are 2x or 3x leveraged — if the housing index the fund tracks moves 1%, the ETF might move 2% or 3%. This allows investors both a great deal of risk and reward if they feel confidently in the direction that the housing market is headed.

值得注意的是,這些基金的風險不可否認。理論上,房價可以無限上漲,這意味着這些ETF的下跌幅度沒有限制。此外,其中一些基金的槓桿率是2倍或3倍--如果該基金跟蹤的房地產指數變動1%,ETF可能變動2%或3%。這為投資者帶來了巨大的風險和回報,如果他們對房地產市場的發展方向充滿信心的話。

Inverse real estate funds are not designed to be a permanent fixture in any portfolio. However, if the doomsday theories that many economists are peddling prove to be true, these products offer strong returns.

反向房地產基金並不是被設計成任何投資組合中的永久固定資產。然而,如果許多經濟學家兜售的末日理論被證明是正確的,這些產品將提供強勁的回報。

Some popular examples of inverse real estate ETFs include the ProShares Short Real Estate (NYSEARCA:REK), the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (NYSEARCA:SRS) and the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:DRV).

反向房地產ETF的一些流行例子包括ProShares Short Real Estate(NYSEArca:REK),ProShares UltraShort房地產(NYSEArca:SRS)和Direxion Daily房地產熊市3X股(NYSEArca:DRV)。

Shorting Real Estate Stocks

做空地產股

Shorting real estate stocks is another fairly direct way to profit off the demise of realtor companies. As home prices recede, it's only natural for many brokerage services to feel a similar decline in value. As such, savvy investors can take advantage of the impending slide by shorting popular real estate stocks.

做空房地產股票是從房地產公司的倒閉中獲利的另一種相當直接的方式。隨着房價的回落,許多經紀服務自然會感受到類似的價值下降。因此,精明的投資者可以通過做空受歡迎的房地產股票來利用即將到來的下滑。

Shorting consists of two potential methodologies. The first way is to buy put options on a stock that increase in value as the underlying security falls in value. A put option is essentially a contract that gives the buyer the right to sell a pre-determined amount of a security at a specific price and specific time. A put option includes a strike price, or the price that the security has to fall below in order to be "in the money." If the stock falls below the strike price, before the expiration date — at least for put options — the owner of the contract will profit off the difference between the stock price and strike price, per share, either by exercising or selling the option.

做空包括兩種潛在的方法。第一種方式是購買股票的看跌期權,這些看跌期權隨着標的證券價值的下降而增值。看跌期權本質上是一種合同,賦予買方以特定價格和特定時間出售預定數量的證券的權利。看跌期權包括執行價,即證券必須跌破才能“有錢”的價格。如果股票在到期日之前跌破執行價--至少對於看跌期權而言--合同所有者將通過行使或出售期權,從每股股票價格和執行價之間的差額中獲利。

If you believe real estate is set for a long-term collapse, a savvy investor may buy long-term put options in brokerage services like Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN) and Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) and wait for their shares to fall, then sell the put options and reap strong benefits. Of course, if it looks like the security ends up higher than its strike price at expiration, the option will expire worthless.

如果你認為房地產將長期崩盤,精明的投資者可能會購買經紀服務中的長期看跌期權,比如紅鰭(納斯達克:RDFN)和Zillow(納斯達克:Z)並等待其股價下跌,然後出售看跌期權並獲得強勁收益。當然,如果證券在到期時看起來高於其執行價格,期權到期將一文不值。

Lastly, it's worth noting that not every security brokerage offers options investing to every investor all the time.

最後,值得注意的是,並不是每家證券經紀公司都一直向每一位投資者提供期權投資。

Short-Selling Housing Stocks

賣空房屋股

Finally, another way to short real estate stocks is by short selling. Short selling involves borrowing shares of brokerage services, selling them in the open market and then profiting from the difference in value when you return the shares to the lending party at a lower price per share.

最後,做空地產股的另一種方式是賣空。賣空是指借入經紀服務的股票,在公開市場上出售,然後在以較低的每股價格將股票返還給出借方時,從價值差額中獲利。

Short selling is another risky business — should the price of the stock you're shorting go up, your losses are theoretically unlimited. However, with some good timing and a risk-aware approach, it's possible to reap some strong gains.

賣空是另一項有風險的業務--如果你做空的股票價格上漲,理論上你的損失是無限的。然而,通過一些好的時機和有風險意識的方法,它可能會獲得一些強勁的收益。

On the date of publication, Shrey Dua did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文發表之日,Shrey Dua並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

With degrees in economics and journalism, Shrey Dua leverages his ample experience in media and reporting to contribute well-informed articles covering everything from financial regulation and the electric vehicle industry to the housing market and monetary policy. Shrey's articles have featured in the likes of Morning Brew, Real Clear Markets, the Downline Podcast, and more.

擁有經濟學和新聞學學位的Shrey Dua利用他在媒體和報道方面的豐富經驗,撰寫了消息靈通的文章,涵蓋從金融監管和電動汽車行業到房地產市場和貨幣政策的方方面面。Shrey的文章已經在晨釀、Real Clear Markets、Downline Podcast等節目中亮相。

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