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How to Short Real Estate: 3 Ways to Profit From a Housing Market Crash

How to Short Real Estate: 3 Ways to Profit From a Housing Market Crash

如何做空房地产:从房地产市场崩盘中获利的三种方法
InvestorPlace ·  2022/10/10 17:16

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In 2007, Michael Burry — the then-head of Scion Capital — did something unthinkable: he shorted the real estate market. As the housing market inevitably collapsed, Burry and a handful of other savvy investors earned billions on what is still considered a do-or-die investment. Now, with rumors continuing to swirl that a 2022 housing market crash may be more fact than fiction, interest in shorting real estate is growing substantially. What's more, with the number of investing options available today, anyone can hedge against housing with relative ease. Should you short the housing market?

2007年,时任谷歌首席执行官的迈克尔·伯里赛昂资本-做了一件不可思议的事情:他做空了房地产市场。随着房地产市场不可避免地崩溃,Burry和其他几个精明的投资者从仍然被认为是生死攸关的投资中赚取了数十亿美元。现在,随着有关2022年房地产市场崩盘可能更多地是事实而不是虚构的传言继续流传,做空房地产的兴趣正在大幅增长。更重要的是,如今有这么多的投资选择,任何人都可以相对轻松地对冲房地产。你应该做空房地产市场吗?

Frankly, it depends — and in more ways than one. The history of housing is one defined by long-term, relentless growth. Indeed home prices have had a vertical trajectory for the past few years, adding to the industry's normally strong growth. However, according to a number of economists, conditions are quickly reversing.

坦率地说,这要看情况--而且在很多方面都是如此。房地产业的历史是一部由长期、无情的增长定义的历史。事实上,过去几年房价一直呈垂直上升趋势,进一步推动了该行业通常强劲的增长。然而,根据一些经济学家的说法,情况正在迅速逆转。

Elevated mortgage rates and rampant inflation have pushed many would-be homebuyers out of the market completely. Meanwhile, a growing number of home owners are rushing to sell their houses to avoid losing money when prices fall. As such, many suspect that it's only a matter of time before home prices ease back down. Whether this results in a true 2008-style "housing market crash" remains to be seen.

居高不下的抵押贷款利率和猖獗的通胀已经将许多潜在的购房者完全赶出了市场。与此同时,越来越多的房主正争先恐后地出售自己的房子,以避免在房价下跌时赔钱。因此,许多人怀疑房价回落只是时间问题。这是否会导致2008年那样的“房地产市场崩盘”仍有待观察。

Home prices fell in both July and August, the first drop in years. While this means a loss of wealth for many property owners, that doesn't mean there's no way to see green from a potentially steep housing correction. Let's take a look at some ways to profit from a potential housing recession.

房价在7月和8月都出现了下跌,这是多年来的首次下跌。虽然这对许多房主来说意味着财富的损失,但这并不意味着没有办法从潜在的大幅楼市回调中看到绿色。让我们来看看从潜在的房地产衰退中获利的一些方法。

Inverse Real Estate ETFs

反向房地产ETF

Inverse real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are perhaps the most straightforward way to capitalize from a wider housing pullback. These ETFs track the inverse of popular U.S. housing indices, like the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. Essentially, if home prices go up, these products will fall in value. But if home prices go down, the ETFs will rise. Accordingly, if you believe home prices are in for a downturn, inverse ETFs are an effective way to short the market.

反向房地产交易所交易基金(ETF)可能是从更广泛的房地产回调中获利的最直接的方式。这些ETF跟踪流行的美国房地产指数的倒数,如道琼斯美国房地产指数。从本质上讲,如果房价上涨,这些产品的价值就会下降。但如果房价下跌,ETF就会上涨。因此,如果你认为房价将会下滑,反向ETF是做空市场的有效方式。

It's worth noting that these funds are undeniably risky. Home prices can theoretically rise infinitely, meaning these ETFs have no limit to how far they can fall. Additionally, some of these funds are 2x or 3x leveraged — if the housing index the fund tracks moves 1%, the ETF might move 2% or 3%. This allows investors both a great deal of risk and reward if they feel confidently in the direction that the housing market is headed.

值得注意的是,这些基金的风险不可否认。理论上,房价可以无限上涨,这意味着这些ETF的下跌幅度没有限制。此外,其中一些基金的杠杆率是2倍或3倍--如果该基金跟踪的房地产指数变动1%,ETF可能变动2%或3%。这为投资者带来了巨大的风险和回报,如果他们对房地产市场的发展方向充满信心的话。

Inverse real estate funds are not designed to be a permanent fixture in any portfolio. However, if the doomsday theories that many economists are peddling prove to be true, these products offer strong returns.

反向房地产基金并不是被设计成任何投资组合中的永久固定资产。然而,如果许多经济学家兜售的末日理论被证明是正确的,这些产品将提供强劲的回报。

Some popular examples of inverse real estate ETFs include the ProShares Short Real Estate (NYSEARCA:REK), the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (NYSEARCA:SRS) and the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:DRV).

反向房地产ETF的一些流行例子包括ProShares Short Real Estate(NYSEArca:REK),ProShares UltraShort房地产(NYSEArca:SRS)和Direxion Daily房地产熊市3X股(NYSEArca:DRV)。

Shorting Real Estate Stocks

做空地产股

Shorting real estate stocks is another fairly direct way to profit off the demise of realtor companies. As home prices recede, it's only natural for many brokerage services to feel a similar decline in value. As such, savvy investors can take advantage of the impending slide by shorting popular real estate stocks.

做空房地产股票是从房地产公司的倒闭中获利的另一种相当直接的方式。随着房价的回落,许多经纪服务自然会感受到类似的价值下降。因此,精明的投资者可以通过做空受欢迎的房地产股票来利用即将到来的下滑。

Shorting consists of two potential methodologies. The first way is to buy put options on a stock that increase in value as the underlying security falls in value. A put option is essentially a contract that gives the buyer the right to sell a pre-determined amount of a security at a specific price and specific time. A put option includes a strike price, or the price that the security has to fall below in order to be "in the money." If the stock falls below the strike price, before the expiration date — at least for put options — the owner of the contract will profit off the difference between the stock price and strike price, per share, either by exercising or selling the option.

做空包括两种潜在的方法。第一种方式是购买股票的看跌期权,这些看跌期权随着标的证券价值的下降而增值。看跌期权本质上是一种合同,赋予买方以特定价格和特定时间出售预定数量的证券的权利。看跌期权包括执行价,即证券必须跌破才能“有钱”的价格。如果股票在到期日之前跌破执行价--至少对于看跌期权而言--合同所有者将通过行使或出售期权,从每股股票价格和执行价之间的差额中获利。

If you believe real estate is set for a long-term collapse, a savvy investor may buy long-term put options in brokerage services like Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN) and Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) and wait for their shares to fall, then sell the put options and reap strong benefits. Of course, if it looks like the security ends up higher than its strike price at expiration, the option will expire worthless.

如果你认为房地产将长期崩盘,精明的投资者可能会购买经纪服务中的长期看跌期权,比如红鳍(纳斯达克:RDFN)和Zillow(纳斯达克:Z)并等待其股价下跌,然后出售看跌期权并获得强劲收益。当然,如果证券在到期时看起来高于其执行价格,期权到期将一文不值。

Lastly, it's worth noting that not every security brokerage offers options investing to every investor all the time.

最后,值得注意的是,并不是每家证券经纪公司都一直向每一位投资者提供期权投资。

Short-Selling Housing Stocks

卖空房屋股

Finally, another way to short real estate stocks is by short selling. Short selling involves borrowing shares of brokerage services, selling them in the open market and then profiting from the difference in value when you return the shares to the lending party at a lower price per share.

最后,做空地产股的另一种方式是卖空。卖空是指借入经纪服务的股票,在公开市场上出售,然后在以较低的每股价格将股票返还给出借方时,从价值差额中获利。

Short selling is another risky business — should the price of the stock you're shorting go up, your losses are theoretically unlimited. However, with some good timing and a risk-aware approach, it's possible to reap some strong gains.

卖空是另一项有风险的业务--如果你做空的股票价格上涨,理论上你的损失是无限的。然而,通过一些好的时机和有风险意识的方法,它可能会获得一些强劲的收益。

On the date of publication, Shrey Dua did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文发表之日,Shrey Dua并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。

With degrees in economics and journalism, Shrey Dua leverages his ample experience in media and reporting to contribute well-informed articles covering everything from financial regulation and the electric vehicle industry to the housing market and monetary policy. Shrey's articles have featured in the likes of Morning Brew, Real Clear Markets, the Downline Podcast, and more.

拥有经济学和新闻学学位的Shrey Dua利用他在媒体和报道方面的丰富经验,撰写了消息灵通的文章,涵盖从金融监管和电动汽车行业到房地产市场和货币政策的方方面面。Shrey的文章已经在晨酿、Real Clear Markets、Downline Podcast等节目中亮相。

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The post How to Short Real Estate: 3 Ways to Profit From a Housing Market Crash appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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